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Israel's unprovoked attack on Iran, followed by continued bombardments despite ongoing negotiations, reveals it as the sole aggressor. Ignoring evidence that Iran halted its nuclear weapons program in 2003, Israel's strikes aim to provoke regime change, not defense. Its nuclear arsenal and U.S. support enable this aggression, destabilizing the region while Iran rallies in unity. Negotiations, not U.S. intervention, are the path forward.
Western diplomacy must prioritize de-escalation with Iran, engaging in good-faith talks to curb its nuclear ambitions while avoiding catastrophic war. Yet, the Iranian people, oppressed by the Ayatollah's regime, deserve to reclaim their nation through their own agency, not foreign bombs. Both Israel and Iran have a long history of aggression, risking regional chaos. Humble diplomacy is required of both countries.
There is an 80% chance that the United States will strike the Iranian military in Iran before August 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
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