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Snapshot 8:Thu, Jun 12, 2025 8:30:10 PM GMT last edited by Anna-Lisa

US Pulls Some Diplomats, Military Families From Middle East Amid Iran Tensions

US Pulls Some Diplomats, Military Families From Middle East Amid Iran Tensions

Above: Helicopters escort then-Secretary of State Antony Blinken to the U.S. embassy in Iraq in 2024. Image copyright: Andrew Caballero-Reynolds/AFP/Getty Images

The Spin

ThereEither isIran makes a 39%deal chanceto thatcease uranium enrichment and ensure it does not have nuclear weapons, or the absence of nuclear weapons will be imposed on the nation militarily. The U.S. andwants Iranto willavoid signdeath aand newdestruction, agreementbut restrictingeither Iran'sway, nuclearthe programend beforeresult 2029,will accordingbe to the Metaculussame predictionfor communityTehran.

Either Iran makeshas ano dealdesire tofor ceasenuclear uraniumweapons enrichment and ensureis itprepared doesto notreach havean nuclearagreement weapons,with or the absenceU.S. ofon nuclearthis weaponsbasis. willHowever, beIran imposedmust onmaintain the nationright militarily.to Theenrich U.S.uranium wantsfor tocivilian avoidpurposes death and destruction,this butcan eitherbe way,effectively themonitored endby resultinspectors willfrom be the sameInternational forAtomic TehranEnergy Agency.

Iran has no desirereal forinterest in reaching a nuclear weaponsagreement. andIt is preparedsimply tobuying reachtime anthrough agreement with the U.S.negotiation onprocess thisto basis.better However,protect Iranits mustnuclear maintainsites theso rightthat towhen enrichstrikes uraniumcome, forthey civilianwill purposes and this can be effectivelyless monitoredeffective. byIt's inspectorsimperative fromthat thestrikes Internationalare Atomiccarried Energyout Agencyurgently.

Metaculus Prediction

There is a 45% chance that the U.S. and Iran will sign a new agreement restricting Iran's nuclear program before 2029, according to the Metaculus prediction community.


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