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Iran Claims Its Spy Operation Seized Israeli Nuclear Files

Above: An Iranian cleric shouts slogans against the U.S. and Israel as he stands next to Palestinian flags outside the holy mosque of Jamkaran, south of Tehran, on April 15, 2025. Image copyright: Morteza Nikoubazl/Contributor/NurPhoto via Getty Images

The Spin

Pro-Iran narrative

Iran successfully penetrated Israel's most sensitive nuclear secrets, exposing the hypocrisy of a regime that possesses undeclared atomic weapons while criticizing others. This intelligence coup demonstrates Iran's sophisticated capabilities and reveals Israel's vulnerability despite its advanced security apparatus. The timing perfectly counters Western pressure on Iran's nuclear program by highlighting Israel's own nuclear activities.

Anti-Iran narrative

Iran's unsubstantiated claims represent desperate propaganda designed to deflect from its own nuclear violations and upcoming international censure. The timing coincides suspiciously with IAEA meetings and failed nuclear negotiations, suggesting a calculated disinformation campaign. Without evidence or Israeli acknowledgment, these assertions appear to be fabricated attempts to shift focus from Iran's uranium enrichment activities.

Metaculus Prediction

There's a 53% chance that Iran will possess a nuclear weapon before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.


The Controversies



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