BBC: Iran Weaponizes Crime Syndicates for Global Operations

Above: Commander-in-Chief of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Hossein Salami, attends a ceremony marking the death anniversary of the late Iranian President, Ebrahim Raisi, at a square in southern Tehran, Iran, on May 15, 2025. Image copyright: Morteza Nikoubazl/Contributor/NurPhoto via Getty Images

The Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

These underground networks are dangerously sophisticated, allowing Iran to evade sanctions via drug trafficking and launch attacks in the West, particularly against dissidents and Israeli embassies. To end their impunity, enabled by Tehran's proxy strategy, these groups must be designated as Foreign Terrorist Organizations to disrupt Iran's global terror operations threatening U.S. and European security.

Establishment-critical narrative

The U.S. has long outpaced Iran in criminal gang ties, from WWII Mafia deals to Contra-era cartels, fueling global unrest. Regarding Iran specifically, it was an illegal U.S.-U.K. coup in 1953 that ousted Iran's democratic government, sowing distrust that shapes its defiance today. U.S. and Israeli regime-change threats continue today, which shows Tehran's actions are defensive, not just aggressive.

Metaculus Prediction

There is a 33% chance that Iran will experience a successful coup d'etat before 2040, according to the Metaculus prediction community.



Go Deeper


Establishment split

CRITICAL

PRO

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