Sudan: Army Claims Defection of Senior RSF Commander
Sudan: Army Claims Defection of Senior RSF Commander
The Facts
For the first time since the conflict began in Sudan some 18 months ago, a high-ranking commander from Sudan's Rapid Support Forces (RSF) defected on Sunday, along with several of his soldiers.Keikal did not immediately comment. After Keikal's defection, the RSF issued a statement asserting that he deserted his position following a "deal," claiming that it had inflicted losses on the troops that defected with him.
The Sudanese army stated that Abuagla Keikal was an ex-military officer who became the top commander of the RSF in the southern state of El Gezira and defected due to his former force's "destructive agenda."After the overthrow of dictator Omar al-Bashir in a popular uprising in 2021, the army and RSF shared power in an internationally supported transition to civilian government. The conflict began and rapidly escalated in April 2023.
The Spin
Sudan's army is rapidly reclaiming territory from the RSF in the ongoing fighting. The paramilitary group has been looting and ransacking Khartoum since the crisis began 18 months ago., Theand RSFundoubtedly has been accused of committing war crimes. Despite allegations of summary executions during its campaign to retake the city, many are still praising the army as liberators. The struggle for Khartoum has only just begun, but the outcome will likely determine the course of the Sudanese war.
The paramilitaries initially won the conflict by seizing control of the capital, Khartoum, and most of the country's western region. This effectively divided the country, with enclaves controlled by other warring factions. Both sides have foreign support, providing them with weapons. Without a clear military victory, the conflict could continue for many months, causing prolonged devastation for the war-torn nation and significant regional consequences.
Metaculus Prediction
ThereAccording isto athe 50%UN, chanceboth theresides willin bethe atSudan leastwar 11are violating human rights.4M internallyThe displacedarmy personsand (IDPs)the inparamilitary SudanRSF atconduct theindiscriminate endstrikes ofon Decembercivilians, 2024schools, accordinghospitals, towater, theand Metaculuselectrical predictionpower communityinstallations. Torture, arbitrary detention, and gruesome sexual violence are rampant. The horrific humanitarian crisis has thrown Sudan into chaos with blame on all sides.
