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Sudan: Army Claims Defection of Senior RSF Commander

Above: Deputy head of Sudan's ruling Transitional Military Council Shams al-Din Kabashi (L) in the southeastern Gedaref state on March 28, 2024. Image copyright: Contributor/AFP via Getty Images

The Facts

  • For the first time since the conflict began in Sudan some 18 months ago, a high-ranking commander from Sudan's Rapid Support Forces (RSF) reportedly defected on Sunday, along with several of his soldiers.

  • The Sudanese army stated that Abuagla Keikal was an ex-military officer who became the top commander of the RSF in the southern state of El Gezira and defected due to his former force's "destructive agenda."


The Spin

Narrative A

Sudan's army is rapidly reclaiming territory from the RSF in the ongoing fighting. The paramilitary group has been looting and ransacking Khartoum since the crisis began 18 months ago, and undoubtedly committing war crimes. Despite allegations of summary executions during its campaign to retake the city, many are still praising the army as liberators. The struggle for Khartoum has only just begun, but the outcome will likely determine the course of the Sudanese war.

Narrative B

The paramilitaries initially won the conflict by seizing control of the capital, Khartoum, and most of the country's western region. This effectively divided the country, with enclaves controlled by other warring factions. Both sides have foreign support, providing them with weapons. Without a clear military victory, the conflict could continue for many months, causing prolonged devastation for the war-torn nation and significant regional consequences.

Narrative C

According to the UN, both sides in the Sudan war are violating human rights. The army and the paramilitary RSF conduct indiscriminate strikes on civilians, schools, hospitals, water, and electrical power installations. Torture, arbitrary detention, and gruesome sexual violence are rampant. The horrific humanitarian crisis has thrown Sudan into chaos with blame on all sides.


Metaculus Prediction


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