Versions :<1234567Live>
Snapshot 3:Mon, Oct 21, 2024 4:05:38 PM GMT last edited by Haakan

Sudan’s army claims first defection of senior RSF commander

Sudan’s army claims first defection of senior RSF commander

Above: On August 28, 2023, Sudanese army head Abdel Fattah al-Burhan visits Flamingo Marine Base in Port Sudan. Image copyright: AFP via Getty Images***PLEASE REPLACE WATERMARKED IMAGE***

The Facts

  • For the first time since the conflict began in Sudan some 18 months ago, a high-ranking commander from Sudan's Rapid Support Forces (RSF) defected on Sunday, along with several of his soldiers.

  • The Sudanese army stated that Abuagla Keikal was an ex-military officer who became the top commander of the RSF in the southern state of El Gezira and defected due to his former force's "destructive agenda."


The Spin

ThereThe army is arapidly 50%reclaiming chanceterritory therefrom willthe beRSF estimated11,4Min internallythe displacedongoing personsfighting. (IDPs)The inparamilitary Sudangroup athas been looting and ransacking Khartoum since the endcrisis began 18 months ago. The RSF has been accused of Decembercommitting 2024war crimes, accordingincluding allegedly murdering families who refused to hand over their women to be sexually assaulted. Despite allegations of summary executions during its campaign to retake the Metaculuscity, predictionpeople communityare praising the army as liberators. The struggle for Khartoum has only just begun, but the outcome will likely determine the course of the Sudanese war.

The paramilitaries initially won the conflict by seizing control of the capital, Khartoum, and most of the country's western region. This effectively divided the country, with enclaves controlled by other warring factions. Both sides have foreign support, providing them with weapons. Without a clear military victory, the conflict could continue for many months, causing prolonged devastation for the war-torn nation and significant regional consequences.

According to the UN, both sides in the Sudan war are violating human rights. The army and the paramilitary RSF conduct indiscriminate strikes on civilians, schools, hospitals, water, and electrical power installations. Torture is rampant, arbitrary detention and gruesome sexual violence. Over 20K dead and millions of displaced people have thrown the country into chaos.


Metaculus Prediction


Sign up to our daily newsletter