Controversy

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Will the US Enter a Recession in 2027?

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Claims

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KPMG"We now expect real GDP to rise 2.2% on a fourth quarter-to-fourth-quarter basis in 2026 and 2.1% in 2027."Jun 10, 2026

KPMG

Realistic Flow"There is a 29% chance the U.S. will enter a recession by 2027."Aug 15, 2026

Realistic Flow

Kalshi"There is a 26% chance the U.S. will enter a recession next year."Sep 09, 2026

Kalshi

MacroMicro"There is a 15.19% chance of a US recession over the next year."Sep 09, 2026

Macromicro

Moody's Analytics"Moody’s Analytics gives it a 48.6% chance of the U.S. falling into [a recession] in the next 12 months."Apr 07, 2026

Fortune

The Conference Board"The Conference Board continues to forecast real GDP growth of 1.9% in 2026 and 1.9% in 2027."Feb 01, 2026

The Conference Board

Ernst & Young"Given the economy’s strong start to 2026, we have raised our real GDP growth forecast to 2.0% in 2026 and expect growth of 1.9% in 2027."May 21, 2025

Wells Fargo"We expect the U.S. stock market to finish 2027 higher, driven primarily by earnings growth especially related to AI capital investment."Sep 09, 2026

Wells Fargo Investment Institute

David Kelly"It's an OK economy for Americans; it's a great economy for the stock market... we're not forecasting recession."Sep 09, 2026

Benzinga

YCharts"There is a 16.06% chance the US will enter a recession by June 2027."Sep 09, 2026

Ycharts

Robinhood"There is a 26% chance the U.S. will enter a recession in 2027."Sep 09, 2026

Robinhood

Predyx"There is a 35.77% chance the U.S. will enter a recession in 2027."Aug 09, 2026

Predyx

David Rosenberg"We could have a very significant recession in 2027 because business spending will face a vacuum."Mar 10, 2026

Yahoo Finance

Leon Cooperman“I think that we’re going to have a recession sometime next year, and that will probably bring the market down."Sep 09, 2026

The Street

Polymarket"There is a 32% chance of a U.S. recession by the end of 2027."Sep 09, 2026

Polymarket

J.P. Morgan"We expect growth to decelerate to a roughly 2.0% pace in 2027, as strong investment spending on the AI buildout is offset by weaker growth in consumer spending, home-building, and the government sector."Aug 10, 2026

J.P. Morgan Asset Management

OECD"GDP growth is projected to remain around 2% in 2026 before moderating to 1.8% in 2027."Sep 09, 2026

Oecd-Ilibrary

Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco"We now expect an above-trend pace for real GDP growth in both 2026 and 2027, followed by a gradual slowing to our estimated 1.7% trend growth by the end of the forecast horizon."Jan 15, 2026

Frbsf

Peter Schiff"I think we’ve been in a recession for years. The numbers just mask it. But officially, when would the recession start? I don’t know, maybe. Maybe this year, you know, we’ll see if they can stop it with the midterms and a stimulus plan. So either this year or 2027."Sep 09, 2026

The Street

The Telegraph"A slowdown in the jobs market means there is a 33-39pc chance of a US recession by the middle of 2026 and a 50-56pc chance of recession by the middle of 2027, according to Barclays."Sep 09, 2026