Quarter of a million people could lose job by middle of 2027 as UK flirts with recession, analysis says
Guardian10 hrs
UK Economy Faces Recession Risk as Growth Halves
Is the Iran war destroying the U.K. economy or was Britain already too fragile to survive any major shock?
Above: Work and Pensions Secretary Pat McFadden visited Bolton's 'Jobcentre on Wheels' at Horwich Leisure Centre on Feb. 16. Image credit: Peter Byrne/PA Images/Getty Images
The Spin
Pro-government narrative
The Iran war is hammering the U.K. economy, with growth set to halve to just 0.7% and nearly 250,000 jobs at risk by mid-2027. Business confidence has cratered to its worst level since the Covid-19 pandemic, with finance chiefs slashing spending and hiring plans. This is the biggest economic jolt since the pandemic, and the U.K. is staring down a recession it didn't cause.
Government-critical narrative
The U.K. was already fragile before the Iran war hit, and now the IMF says Britain will take a harder blow than any other major economy in the G7. Growth of just 0.7% and unemployment climbing to 5.8% exposes how little resilience was built into the economy beforehand. Reeves and the government have no buffer left, and the Iran shock is exposing every weakness.