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Merz, Macron Discuss European Nuclear Deterrence at Munich Conference

Is a European nuclear shield the only realistic deterrent or an impossible fantasy distracting from real needs?
Merz, Macron Discuss European Nuclear Deterrence at Munich Conference
Above: French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz attend the informal EU leaders' retreat in Alden Biesen, Flanders, Belgium, on Feb. 12. Image credit: EU Council/Pool/Anadolu/Getty Images

The Spin

Narrative A

Europe faces an existential security crisis as Trump's administration openly disdains defending the continent and Russia threatens NATO's eastern flank within years. A European nuclear shield pooling French and British arsenals offers the only realistic deterrent against Putin's aggression when America abandons its commitments and conventional rearmament takes too long to build.

Narrative B

The Eurobomb debate distracts from Europe's real weakness in conventional forces while chasing an impossible fantasy that violates treaties and fractures alliances. American extended deterrence remains credible despite rhetoric, France and Britain already provide nuclear coverage, and NATO's actual gap lies in combat battalions and equipment that money and cooperation can fix.

Metaculus Prediction



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© 2026 Improve the News Foundation. All rights reserved.Version 6.18.0

© 2026 Improve the News Foundation.

All rights reserved.

Version 6.18.0