EU and US Cut Diplomatic Ties before 2051?
MetaculusDEC 4 2023
Vance, Von der Leyen Meet Amid US-EU Tariff Tensions
Above: US Vice-Pres. JD Vance exchanges remarks with Pres. of the European Commission (EC) Ursula von der Leyen during a bilateral meeting held at the Chief of Mission's residence at the US embassy in Paris on Feb. 11, 2025. Image copyright: IAN LANGSDON/Contributor/AFP via Getty Images
The Spin
Pro-Trump narrative
JD Vance has represented US interests from a position of strength during his European tour. While Europe scrambles for a response, it's clear that US tariffs would correct the imbalance in trade relations. EU leaders, divided on their approach, struggle to counter Washington's decisive policies. By enforcing tariffs, the US can hold Europe accountable for unfair practices, pushing them to the negotiating table and securing better terms for American workers and industries.
Anti-Trump narrative
America's aggressive tariff threats against the EU risk backfiring, as Europe can take a smarter, more strategic approach. By strengthening ties with countries like Canada, the EU can counterbalance US unpredictability and reduce reliance on US tech giants. Europe can limit access to its digital economy, which would significantly impact US firms that dominate this space. Despite America's bully tactics, Europe can protect its interests and maintain stability in the global market.