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Trump, Carney Meet Amid US-Canada Trade Tensions

Trump, Carney Meet Amid US-Canada Trade Tensions
Above: Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and U.S. President Donald Trump in the Oval Office on Oct. 7, 2025. Image copyright: Shawn Thew/EPA/Bloomberg/Getty Images

The Spin

Pro-Trump narrative

Canada’s economy is faltering under Trump’s tough but effective trade policies, with unemployment at 7.1% — the highest in nearly a decade — and GDP shrinking as companies relocate south. Tariffs on steel, aluminum, autos, lumber and soon heavy trucks are pressuring Ottawa to make real concessions instead of empty gestures. Trump’s approach is working: it’s strengthening U.S. industry, boosting revenue and forcing Canada to the table ahead of the 2026 USMCA review.

Anti-Trump narrative

Trump’s tariffs on Canada are a reckless act of economic nationalism that punishes American workers as much as Canadian ones. They disrupt supply chains, raise consumer prices and alienate one of the United States’ closest allies for no strategic gain. This isn’t strength — it’s self-sabotage dressed up as patriotism.

Liberal Party narrative

Canada's patient approach to Trump's tariffs is working better than critics claim. Facing a U.S. president who wields tariffs as leverage, Carney is keeping dialogue open and expectations realistic, building trust directly with Trump while avoiding hasty, one-sided deals like those struck by Japan and the EU. With 85% of exports still tariff-free and pressure mounting on U.S. consumers and industry, Canada’s long game preserves leverage — and in this climate, even no deal may be wiser than a bad one.

Conservative Party narrative

Canada’s patient approach has become an excuse for failure. Tariffs have doubled, companies are fleeing south and Ottawa has surrendered key tools like counter-tariffs and the digital services tax without securing anything in return. “No deal” isn’t a strategy — it’s a symptom of weak leadership. Canadians deserve more than photo ops and vague promises; they need a government that will fight to scrap "Buy American" rules, lift crippling tariffs and deliver real wins that put Canadian workers first.

Metaculus Prediction



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© 2025 Improve the News Foundation. All rights reserved.Version 6.15.2

© 2025 Improve the News Foundation.

All rights reserved.

Version 6.15.2