Trump Announces 19% Tariff Deal with Indonesia

Trump Announces 19% Tariff Deal with Indonesia
Above: Containers at the International Container Terminal in Surabaya on July 7, 2025. Image copyright: Juni Kriswanto/AFP/Getty Images

The Spin

Republican narrative

This is a significant victory for American workers and businesses, securing unprecedented access to Indonesia's massive market of 280 million people while protecting U.S. interests. The agreement eliminates unfair trade barriers that have long disadvantaged American exporters, creating a level playing field where U.S. products face zero tariffs. The substantial Indonesian commitments to purchase American energy, agriculture, and aircraft will boost domestic production and create jobs across multiple sectors.

Democratic narrative

The 19% tariff rate still represents a significant burden on Indonesian exporters and threatens to impact hundreds of thousands of jobs in key industries, such as apparel and footwear. While the deal avoids the worst-case scenario of 32% tariffs, it maintains an asymmetrical relationship that favors U.S. interests over genuine free trade principles. The agreement's focus on containing China through anti-transshipment provisions forces Indonesia to choose sides in a trade war rather than promoting regional economic integration.

Metaculus Prediction


Public Figures


The Controversies



Political split

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RIGHT

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