Controversy
Status:Resolved
Will Trump Impose 10% Tariff on Chinese Goods?
Resolution:
Yes.
Resolved on Feb 01, 2025
UNLIKELYLIKELY
Claims
Goldman Sachs"The new administration is likely to announce the China and auto tariffs relatively soon after the January 20 inauguration."Feb 18, 2025
Abrdn plc"[I]t's highly likely there will be a sharp increase in the average tariff on China from 15% to 40% starting early in 2025."Feb 18, 2025
Donald Trump"We're talking about a tariff of 10 per cent on China, based on the fact that they're sending fentanyl to Mexico and Canada."Jan 22, 2025
S&P Global"What we assumed in our baseline is an across-the-board increase from around 14% now to 25%. Thus, what we assumed is a bit more than the 10% on all imports from China."Nov 27, 2024
Charles Stanley & Co. Limited"China is likely to be the object of the most serious tariff threats."Feb 18, 2025
Nancy Qian"Observers may wonder whether the resulting economic headwinds would prevent the United States from imposing such high tariffs were Trump to return to the White House. The answer is probably no."Aug 04, 2024
Goldman Sachs"Goldman Sachs Research's forecast assumes a 20 percentage-point increase in the effective tariff rate imposed by the incoming Trump administration on Chinese goods."Dec 04, 2024
Karoline Leavitt"Tomorrow, the president will be implementing a 25% tariff on Mexico, a 25% tariff on Canada, and a 10% tariff on China."Feb 18, 2025
S&P Global"We expect that goods from mainland China imported to the US will see a new 30% tariff (up from 21%), with the existing 102.5% tariff on electric vehicles from mainland China remaining in place."Jan 07, 2025
The Economist Intelligence Unit"We expect the effective tariff rate on China to rise by 5-10 percentage points in 2025."Feb 18, 2025
ReutersA poll of more than 50 economists by Reuters showed a strong majority "expects Trump to impose the tariffs by early next year, with a median estimate of 38% and projections ranging from 15% to 60%."Feb 22, 2025
Jake Colvin"If they decide on day one that they want to use executive authority to put tariffs on Chinese goods, they could probably go ahead and do that."Feb 22, 2025
Sidley AustinBased on what he said he would do if re-elected, "we expect the United States to increase tariffs shortly after former President Trump is sworn in on January 20, 2025."Nov 25, 2024
ABN AMRO Bank"We assume the US will announce a new round of high (headline 60%) China tariffs in Q1-25, start implementing them in Q2-25 and gradually expand their coverage until an effective average tariff rate of 45% (60% over 75% of CN exports to US) is reached in Q2-26."Feb 18, 1996
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