RAND Report Outlines Strategies to Stabilize US-China Relations

Published OCT 28

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Above: Flags of the U.S. and China fly along Pennsylvania Avenue in Washington, D.C. Image copyright: Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg/Getty Images

The Spin

Establishment-critical narrative

Stabilizing the U.S.-China rivalry requires accepting each side's political legitimacy and recognizing that total victory is impossible. Both nations must exercise restraint in military and technological competition while maintaining trusted communication — avoiding misrepresentation of the other side's intentions — and crisis-management mechanisms. Targeted cooperation and shared rules in Taiwan, the South China Sea, and science and technology can keep the rivalry intense but manageable, preventing catastrophic escalation.

RAND

Pro-establishment narrative

RAND's call for restraint and cautious stabilization underestimates the threat from China's growing military and economic power. The U.S. cannot rely on diplomacy or limited cooperation; it must prioritize Taiwan, build overwhelming naval and air capabilities, and pre-position forces to deny Beijing regional dominance. Economic coercion, such as China's rare-earth leverage, shows that only decisive military and strategic pressure can prevent China from achieving global peer-rival status.

Armywarcollege The New York Times The Wall Street Journal

Pro-China narrative

RAND's cautious call for U.S.-China stabilization underscores the asymmetry in understanding: Beijing seeks dialogue and careful management of tensions, while Washington frequently provokes conflict through military posturing and economic coercion. China's insistence on the one-China principle and responsible engagement in global trade demonstrates a commitment to stability, even as U.S. rhetoric exaggerates threats. Constructive communication and modest cooperation, not confrontation, remain the prudent path for both nations and the world.

Global Times

Cynical narrative

RAND's — the Deep State think tank for the U.S. military-industrial complex — deferential recommendations toward China reflect hard realities, not goodwill. By urging the U.S. to accept the Communist Party's legitimacy, reject notions of absolute victory, and pressure Taiwan to avoid provocations, the report signals that Washington can no longer unilaterally shape outcomes. The underlying message is clear: the material balance of power has shifted, and the U.S. must adjust or risk strategic humiliation.

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