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EU Leaders Debate Trade Deal as Trump Deadline Looms

EU Leaders Debate Trade Deal as Trump Deadline Looms
Above: European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in The Hague, the Netherlands, on June 23, 2025. Image copyright: Klaudia Radecka/NurPhoto/Getty Images

The Spin

Pro-Trump narrative

Trump's tariffs are working effectively. The trade deficit has shrunk by record amounts while tariff revenue pours into US coffers. Europe has unfairly exploited America's open markets for decades, running a $200B annual surplus while blocking exports. Now they're panicking because the gravy train is over. The ball's in their court — make real concessions or keep paying.

Pro-Europe narrative

The EU must walk a fine line between cooperation and retaliation. While the U.S. threatens to hike tariffs, Europe shouldn't escalate unnecessarily, it must seek a diplomatic solution. While reciprocal action will be taken where appropriate, limited retaliation through WTO channels while maintaining dialogue offers the best path forward for preserving the transatlantic partnership.

Metaculus Prediction



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