Chinese Military Base in the Solomon Islands
MetaculusMAR 9 2023
China's Naval Drills Near Australia Spark Regional Tension
Above: Prime Minister Anthony Albanese ahead of an address to the National Press Club of Australia in Canberra on Jan. 24, 2025. Image copyright: Alex Ellinghausen/Sydney Morning Herald/Fairfax Media via Getty Images
The Facts
Chinese Ambassador to Australia Xiao Qian has defended the Chinese navy's military drills earlier this month as normal practice for a major power, also insisting that China had no reason to apologize for the exercise.
Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said China's otherwise legally compliant drills fell short of the standard 12-48 hour advance notice, while China on Thursday asked if Australia would send such notifications in advance.
The Chinese flotilla consisted of three warships and held live-fire exercises in the Tasman Sea between Australia and New Zealand, causing the diversion of 49 commercial flights.
The Spin
Pro-China narrative
The naval exercises were entirely legitimate and professional, conducted in international waters far from Australia's coastline, with appropriate safety notices issued according to international practices. China, as a major regional power, has every right to conduct military activities in different parts of the world, and these drills should not be overinterpreted or cause undue concern.
Anti-China narrative
The no-notice live firing exercises represent deliberate and dangerous behavior in a peaceful neighborhood, causing unnecessary disruption to civilian aviation and undermining recent diplomatic progress. The lack of proper advance notice falls short of expected international standards and raises concerns about China's military intentions in the region.
Metaculus Prediction
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