Trump struggles to keep his edge against Harris with fewer than 100 days until the election
NBCAUG 9 2024
Polls Show Harris Making Gains Among Black Voters
Above: People attend a campaign event for Democratic presidential candidate, US Vice Pres. Kamala Harris and Democratic vice presidential candidate Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz on Aug. 7, 2024 in Detroit, Michigan. Image copyright: Andrew Harnik/Staff/Getty Images News via Getty Images
The Facts
At least three recent polls have shown that the nomination of US Vice Pres. Kamala Harris as the Democratic presidential candidate is receiving boosted support from African Americans.
According to Reuters/Ipsos poll responses gathered in July, Harris leads Republican candidate Donald Trump by 58 points among Black voters, 70% to 12% — an eight-point increase over Pres. Joe Biden's lead in May and June (59% to 9%).
A new CBS News/YouGov survey found that 74% of Black registered voters will definitely vote, 16% up from July when Biden was the nominee, while another 14% will probably vote. Among likely Black voters, Harris leads Trump, 81% to 18%.
The Spin
Democratic narrative
Too many left-leaning Democratic voters had concerns over Biden's ability to challenge Donald Trump, and African Americans were no exception. His replacement alone was likely to boost overall support for the Democratic nominee, and the prospect of electing another Black candidate will indeed help Democrats regain Black votes lost to the GOP.
Republican narrative
While it's true that some African Americans may vote for Kamala Harris based on the demographics she physically represents, this will have little impact on the presidential race. Black voters aren't as easy to manipulate as the mainstream media thinks; most of them have already realized that Trump is best for America.
Metaculus Prediction
Public Figures
The Controversies
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