Ukraine Halts Transit of Russian Gas to Europe

Above: A damaged sign of the gas measuring station ‘Sudzha’ with the logo of Gazprom is seen on Aug. 16, 2024, in Sudzha, Russia. Image copyright: Yan Dobronosov/Contributor/Global Images Ukraine via Getty Images

The Facts

  • Russian gas transit through Ukraine completely stopped on Wednesday at 8 am Moscow time, ending a decades-long arrangement that began during the Soviet era.

  • The cessation occurred after Ukraine reportedly refused to extend a five-year transit agreement with Russia's Gazprom, which had provided the annual transit of 40B cubic meters of Russian gas.


The Spin

Pro-Ukraine narrative

This is a historic victory for Ukraine and Europe's energy independence and national security. Europe has successfully diversified its energy sources and reduced Moscow's ability to use gas as political leverage. The economic impact on Russia demonstrates the effectiveness of reducing dependence on Russian energy.

Pro-Russia narrative

This transit contract isn't the end of the world. It's not Russia but European economies that will face drastic consequences, potentially leading to higher energy prices and supply uncertainties. The alternative sources are more expensive and could harm European industrial competitiveness.


Metaculus Prediction


Go Deeper


Establishment split

CRITICAL

PRO