Iran Nuclear Weapon Biden White Hous
AxiosJAN 6
Report: Biden Admin. Discussed Iran Strike Options Before Trump Takes Office
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Above: US President Joe Biden addresses the Bourbon Street terrorist strike in New Orleans from Camp David, Maryland, on January 1, 2025. Image copyright: Chris Kleponis/Contributor/AFP via Getty Images
The Spin
Pro-establishment narrative
The acceleration of Iran's nuclear program, combined with its weakened military position, presents a strategic opportunity for the Biden administration to prevent nuclear weapons development through military action while minimizing risks of regional escalation. The White House is responsibly evaluating risk.
Establishment-critical narrative
Iran maintains its nuclear program is strictly for civilian purposes, and any military action during a presidential transition period would risk handing over a fresh conflict to the incoming administration while potentially destabilizing the entire region. If this report is correct, it shows a dangerous consideration of global escalation.
Metaculus Prediction
There is a 15% chance the US will control Tehran within one year if there is an American AUMF or declaration of war against Iran before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
