Will France call another election by 2026?
MetaculusJul 28, 2024
France: Bayrou Survives No-Confidence Votes, Budget Plan Passes
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Above: Francois Bayrou, the French Prime Minister, is seen during the session of questions to the French government at the National Assembly in Paris, France, on Feb. 2, 2025. Image copyright: Telmo Pinto/Contributor/NurPhoto via Getty Images
The Facts
Prime Minister François Bayrou survived two no-confidence votes on Wednesday, with only 128 out of 577 lawmakers voting to topple the government after Article 49.3 of the French Constitution was used to pass through the 2025 state budget without a parliamentary vote.
The Socialist Party decided not to support the no-confidence motion tabled by left-wing France Unbowed (LFI), arguing France needed economic stability while planning to table their own censure motion after a budget was passed.
The right-wing National Rally (RN) also abstained from the voting, with party Pres. Jordan Bardella stating a day prior that France "would not benefit from a new form of instability."
The Spin
Narrative A
Bayrou's survival and his budget's passing are crucial for maintaining stability at a critical time. While his leadership style may seem disorganized, Bayrou has skillfully navigated the political landscape, making necessary and pragmatic concessions with the Socialists. By securing a deficit-cutting budget, he ensures that essential services continue while avoiding the political instability that would arise from further delays or government collapse.
Narrative B
Bayrou's budget is a disaster for France, and the refusal to support a vote of no confidence is a betrayal of the working class. The budget is an austerity-driven, anti-social plan that slashes funding for critical areas like housing, education, and ecology while increasing electricity rates and reducing social benefits. By refusing to remove Bayrou, status quo Macronism unfortunately survives and will continue to plague the lives of the French public.
