California firefighters battle wind-driven wildfire east of San Francisco
Associated PressJUN 2024
Thousands Temporarily Evacuated in California Wildfire
Above: The Windy Fire blazes through the Long Meadow Grove of giant sequoia trees near The Trail of 100 Giants overnight in Sequoia National Forest on September 21, 2021 near California Hot Springs, California. Image copyright: David McNew/Stringer/Getty Images News via Getty Images
The Spin
Narrative A
It's still early in the fire season, but California has already seen over 1.2K wildfires. Forecasts indicate that La Nina and climate change will intensify the warmer weather. A rainy winter, paradoxically, promotes vegetation growth, and when plants dry up, they become fuel, complicating the already dangerous wildfire season.
Narrative B
The frequency and severity of California wildfires have increased each year in the 21st century. But research indicates that people cause the majority of wildfires, with only 10 -15% occurring naturally. The causes range from smoking to igniting power lines. In fact, human-caused fires are more devastating than those caused by weather — a vital context that's often overlooked.
Metaculus Prediction
There is a 50% chance that wildfires will destroy a total exceeding 10Mha of global tree cover in any year by the end of 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
