Iran vows revenge at a funeral for commanders killed in an Israeli airstrike.
New York TimesAPR 2024
Report: Iran Seeks to Contain Escalation in Response to Syrian Consulate Attack
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The Spin
Establishment-critical narrative
Israel's attack on Iran's Syrian consulate was a deliberate attempt to increase regional hostiles — with an Iranian response to such aggression inevitable. While Israel and Iran's proxy war has taken various forms over several years, Israel's actions may have irreversibly plunged the two nations into direct conflict.
Pro-establishment narrative
Recent Iranian forays into Pakistan and clashes in Syria reveal the country's chaotic influence over a plethora of conflicts as part of a desperate bid for supremacy within the Middle East. Israel's targeted actions aim to deter Iran, while exposing its covert support for militias including Hamas to the international community.
Metaculus Prediction
There is a 12% chance that a state-based conflict between Iran and Israel will cause at least 1K deaths before 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
