France: Candidates Exit Runoff to Stop National Rally Party

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The Facts

  • Hundreds of candidates from French Pres. Emmanuel Macron's centrist alliance and the New Popular Front (NFP) coalition withdrew from Sunday's runoff legislative elections in a coordinated attempt to keep Marine Le Pen's far-right National Rally (RN) out of power.

  • More than 120 withdrawing candidates belong to the NFP coalition, which came second in the first round of snap legislative elections last Sunday, while over 70 reportedly represent Macron's alliance.


The Spin

Narrative A

Sunday's vote is a historic moment for the French Republic, with significant implications for the country and Europe. The left-wing forces and Macron's centrist bloc withdrawing their third-placed candidates is the best option to prevent the far-right from gaining an absolute majority, which would plunge France into political turmoil. Now is the time to form a broad and democratic "republican front" to protect French liberal values from Marine Le Pen's nationalist RN.

Narrative B

After the French right humiliated Macron in the first round and buried Macronism, the radical left, and Macron's alliance are now resorting to the tactical withdrawal of their most weak candidates. These moves have little to do with democracy, which Macron allegedly tries to protect from the RN. Ironically, Macron's reckless reaction to the European elections and his hubris opened the door to major gains for a surging Le Pen and her allies.


Metaculus Prediction


Public figures in this story