EU Readies €10.6B Space Plan to Rival Musk's Starlink

Above: The launch of the rocket VEGA C-flight VV25 from Kourou, in French Guiana, on Dec. 5, 2024. Image copyright: RONAN LIETAR/Contributor/AFP via Getty Images

The Facts

  • The EU signed a deal with private consortium SpaceRISE on Monday to build a €10.6B (US$11.1B) constellation of 290 satellites to rival Starlink and Project Kuiper.

  • The EU will provide two-thirds of the funds to Iris2, while SpaceRISE provides the rest for what they describe as an "ultra-fast, low latency, and highly secure communications services." This is Europe's third big space initiative after the Galileo navigation system and Copernicus Earth observation network.


The Spin

Narrative A

Europe's decision to launch Iris2 is a strategic push for autonomy, to reduce dependency on Elon Musk’s SpaceX. Musk's dominance raises fears of over-reliance on one individual’s interests. Iris2 represents Europe's commitment to reclaiming sovereignty in space technology — ensuring critical infrastructure remains under European control. The move will also ignite innovation, creating a competitive counterbalance to SpaceX’s formidable influence.

Narrative B

Europe's Iris2 project is a costly and delayed response to Musk's Starlink and a clunky attempt at sovereignty masked as innovation. An agile SpaceX dominates with speed and affordability, while Iris2 struggles under bureaucracy and industrial favoritism. Instead of fostering bold innovation, Europe risks falling further behind — clinging to protectionism while Musk reshapes the space industry.


Metaculus Prediction


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