As Kim meets Putin, Ukraine strikes a Russian military shipyard and Moscow once again attacks Odesa
CBS NewsOCT 29
Ukrainian Attack on Crimea Damages Russian Warships
Image credit: Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine [via Telegram]
The Spin
Pro-Ukraine narrative
The fact that Ukraine used cruise missiles on targets inside Crimea, pierced through Russia's air defenses, and caused substantial damage to its weaponry reminds Moscow that attacks like this will continue until Crimea is rightfully returned.
Pro-Russia narrative
Wednesday's incident will have no bearing on the overall direction of the conflict. Moreover, as Crimea has always been integral to Russia, it's futile to think that Ukraine can seize it by attacking Sevastopol and the Black Sea fleet.
Metaculus Prediction
There's a 1% chance that Ukraine will have de facto control of Sevastopol on Jan. 1, 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
