Sudan: Clashes Erupt on Eve of Eid al-Adha Despite Cease-Fire

Image copyright: Ahmed Rabea/Flickr [via Wikimedia Commons]

The Facts

  • Clashes around military bases between Sudan's army (SAF) and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) reportedly rocked Khartoum on Tuesday, the eve of the Muslim Eid al-Adha holiday.

  • This comes even though the RSF leader Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo announced on Monday that there would be a two-day “unilateral” ceasefire in Sudan, excluding "self-defense situations" for the celebration that marks the culmination of the annual Hajj in Saudi Arabia.


The Spin

Establishment-critical narrative

It's undeniable that Washington is significantly responsible for the fighting in Sudan. The US failed to rein in the country's top generals when mounting tensions between forces led by Burhan and Dagalo indicated that a prolonged conflict was likely to erupt.

Pro-establishment narrative

Since the eruption of violence in Sudan, the US has worked hard to stamp out violence, bring about a peaceful solution, and provide safe passage for humanitarian aid. The US is doing its part in enabling diplomatic resolution and committing itself to supporting refugees until a permanent agreement is reached.

Cynical narrative

Each warring side in Sudan is still battling for supremacy over the country, which indicates they're in no way serious about these ceasefires or peace talks. If the two continue to see each other as an existential threat, it will be impossible to find the middle ground necessary to stop the fighting and prevent the nation from being destroyed.


Metaculus Prediction


Establishment split

CRITICAL

PRO