Inside Putin's push to rewrite Russian history in favor of his war in Ukraine
NBCJUL 2023
Russia Strikes Port Facilities in Odesa Ahead of Putin-Erdogan Talks
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Image copyright: Russian Presidential Executive Office via Wikimedia Commons
The Spin
Pro-Russia narrative
Russia's reasons for leaving the grain deal is that Western countries have not moved to lift the sanctions off of Russian grain and fertilizer exports as was initially agreed to when the deal was first struck. Russia has seen no promising signs that these promises would be fulfilled but remains open to reviving the deal if the export issue is resolved.
Pro-establishment narrative
Despite Russia's claims, Western countries have provided Russia with a comprehensive guide of how a series of exemptions had been issued on the country's grain and fertilizer exports. Russia is using the stoppage of the deal to seek more concessions.
Metaculus Prediction
There's a 5% chance that there will be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
