Russia Relieves Wagner Forces in Bakhmut After Prigozhin Video

Image copyright: [via Business Insider]

The Facts

  • Yevgeny Prigozhin, head of the Russian mercenary group Wagner PMC, launched an expletive-filled video tirade at Russia's top two defense officials late on Thursday. Standing in a field of Wagner corpses he said were killed that day, he lambasted Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Gen. Valery Gerasimov, tasked by Russian Pres. Vladimir Putin to run the war.

  • Prigozhin, whose forces for months have been leading Russia's charge in the Donetsk city of Bakhmut, blamed Shoigu and Gerasimov for the death of the men, claiming his units had ammunition shortages of 70%.


The Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

Russia's allegation that the US had anything to do with this attack is ludicrous. The US is still investigating the circumstances and has not come to any conclusion.

Establishment-critical narrative

If the Kremlin attack was genuine, it was incredibly stupid. If it was a Russian false flag, they're just as capable as anyone else of pulling off this centuries-old political maneuver. The truth is we still don't know and it's too early to say one way or another.

Pro-Russia narrative

It is clear to Russia that this attack could not have happened without the knowledge of the US. Russia will respond with concrete actions to this act of terrorism.


Metaculus Prediction


Establishment split

CRITICAL

PRO

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