Dutch Election: Wilders' Far-Right Party Projected to Win

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The Facts

  • An initial exit poll undertaken by Ipsos has revealed that anti-EU, anti-Islam, right-wing politician Geert Wilders' Freedom Party (PVV) is projected to have won 35 of 150 seats — 10 more than the next most popular party — in the Dutch parliamentary elections held on Wednesday.

  • Following the early results, Wilders said he would "return" the country to its people and "find ways to live up to the hopes of our voters, to put the Dutch back on number one."


The Spin

Right narrative

There's cause for celebration, not simply in the PVV's apparent victory, but in the margin it's apparently acheived. With a majority still required to form a government, PVV must transform this success into leading ministerial positions within a coalition to truly influence Dutch politics.

Left narrative

The projected "success" of the PvdA-GL coalition is a loss for the nation. With the opportunity for governance firmly on the side of the right-wing parties, it has become clear that the Netherlands' left-wing voice hasn't been sufficiently mobilized. The wait for a progressive Dutch leader looks set to continue and the Dutch people will suffer in the meantime under an intolerant, right-wing government.


Metaculus Prediction


Political split

LEFT

RIGHT

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