Day 347: Ukraine Concerned About Renewed Russian Offensive in East

Image copyright: Reuters [via BBC]

The Facts

  • On Sunday, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy characterized the situation in east Ukraine as getting tougher, with Ukrainian troops pressured by Russian forces Bakhmut, Vuhledar, and Lyman in the Donetsk region. This comes amid speculation of a renewed Russian offensive and Ukraine's forthcoming training on German-made Leopard tanks.

  • Ukraine’s Defence Minister Oleksii Reznikov characterized that the Russian offensive could occur this month and that there would be ample forces in place to resist despite western military supplies still en route. Reznikov stated that longer-range weapons from the US would only be used in Ukraine and not be fired into Russian territory.


The Spin

Anti-Russia narrative

In attempting to take Bakhmut, Russian forces have used scorched earth tactics and turned the once-popular tourist destination into a hell-on-earth. The Kremlin is so hungry for any success that it's willing to go to any length to take the city — even if it's been turned to rubble.

Pro-Russia narrative

If Russian forces take control of Bakhmut, it would be a devastating loss for Ukraine. Not only has Ukraine lost hundreds of troops in trying to retain the city, but this operation would also enable Russia to continue its advance into key areas of Donetsk including Slovyansk and Kramatorsk.


Metaculus Prediction


Establishment split

CRITICAL

PRO