The Facts
On the eve of the one-year anniversary of the Russia-Ukraine war, tensions are rising over the breakaway region of Transnistria — a narrow strip of land between the Dniester river in Moldova and the Ukrainian border — sparking fears that a third country could become directly embroiled in the war.
During the collapse of the Soviet Union, the mainly Russian-speaking region proclaimed independence from Moldova in 1990 and fought a war until a ceasefire was signed 1992. However, Transnistria's status as a state hasn't been internationally recognized; an estimated 1.5K Russian troops are believed to be currently stationed there.
The Spin
Pro-Russia narrative
Ukrainian forces are planning a "false-flag operation" in Transnistria to justify launching an invasion of the region. Russia's defense ministry is closely monitoring the situation and will respond accordingly to any changes.
Anti-Russia narrative
Russia's claims about a "false-flag operation" in Transnistria are likely a cover for its potential plans to invade Moldova. Not only would this flagrantly violate the sovereignty of another country, but it could also open up a western front in its war with Ukraine.
