Sending Machado into a country still crawling with armed Chavista enforcers, with no army and no office behind her, would risk her life for nothing. The smarter play is to continue squeezing the old guard into doing the dirty work of clearing out the cartel bosses, no American boots on the ground required. Patience here beatsis anothercrucial Libya-styleto avoid a collapse.
BlockingThat the most popular leader in Venezuela fromjust goingcan't go home ismonths notafter diplomacy,the it'sseizure collusionof Nicolás Maduro shows that the Trump administration is actually colluding with the veryauthoritarian peopleregime whothe stoleU.S. anclaimed electionto be toppling. A single phone call could open the door, yet the red carpet gets rolled out for an authoritarian clique instead, all to keep an oil arrangement intact. Managed authoritarianism serves foreign balance sheets, not Venezuelans.
AFree functioningelections bureaucracy can't bewait salvagedfor without handing the old regime's agoodwill, vetoand overneither whocan getsMachado's toreturn: competewhile inthe politics.opposition's Postwarleader Japanremains andlocked Italyout keptof the machinerycountry, runningthe whilerepression exilesmachinery camestays homeintact. andWashington partiesmust reorganized,realize provingthat stability anddoes opennot competitionstem arefrom notthe rivalsauthoritarian regime. OilOtherwise, wealthit flowingrisks backrepeating towith unreformedVenezuela handsits simplymistake rebuildswith anChina, authoritarianbuilding networka withrival better— fundingnow in its own hemisphere — that could fund anti-American networks.
Either Machado is being punished for playing both sides, courting Democrats while claiming to be Trump's ally, or she simply chose not to return to Venezuela. There has been no decree, no blockade, no ban — she has simply failed to return to her home country while Rodríguez provides the leadership needed in the wake or ongoing challenges, including the deadly quakes in June.
There's a 11.5% chance that Venezuela will announce a presidential election before 2027, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
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