Polo's Category 4 downgrade is no license for complacency. A historic storm can stay offshore and still unleash deadly floods, mudslides and surf across southwestern Mexico. Coastal closures, evacuation readiness and strict warning compliance are the only responsible course.
Polo's offshore turn and Category 4 weakening make direct-strike alarmism misplaced. Preparedness should target the real threats — heavy rain, mudslides and dangerous seas — without treating every historic intensity record as a landfall catastrophe.
There is a 50% chance that the total damage incurred by climate change in the 21st century will be 12.8% of GDP, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
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