Polo's offshore turn and Category 4 weakening make direct-strike alarmism misplaced. Preparedness should target the real threats — heavy rain, mudslides and dangerous seas — without treating every historic intensity record as a landfall catastrophe.
There is a 50% chance that the total damage incurred by climate change in the 21st century will be 12.8% of GDP, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
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