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Trump just left Saudi Arabia hanging at the worst possible moment. Mohammed bin Salman called him twice asking for U.S. help against the Houthis, only to be turned down as Washington stuck to intelligence support. Now government forces are retreating, the Houthis control Bab el-Mandeb and oil is above $100. Trump promised strength in the Middle East, but refusing to back an ally as an Iran-aligned force seizes a critical shipping chokepoint looks more like strategic retreat.
There is a 20 percent chance that state-based conflict between Iran and Saudi Arabia will cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
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