United States of America

NASA's LINK Fails to Boost Swift Observatory

Is this a valuable stepping stone for future space servicing or an irreplaceable loss of vital science capacity?

Published AUG 20

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Above: Artist's concept of NASA’s Neil Gehrels Swift Observatory. Image credit: NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center Conceptual Image Lab/NASA

The Spin

Narrative A

The LINK mission falling short of its boost goal doesn't make it a failure. Rather, it has been genuinely valuable, with the operation laying the groundwork for future satellite servicing, as shown by Katalyst's and NASA's ability to move at an extraordinary pace to tackle a high-risk challenge, and the rendezvous data advances America's in-space capabilities.

Donald Trump on NASA Katalyst Space

Narrative B

Swift has delivered 21 years of groundbreaking science — including spotting the most powerful gamma-ray burst ever recorded — and losing it to an orbital decay that a working LINK could have prevented is a real blow. Framing this as a learning experience doesn't change the fact that irreplaceable capacity is now gone and a still-productive observatory has been lost.

Black Hole on X

Metaculus Prediction

There is a 15% chance that NASA will return a sample of material from the surface of Mars to Earth before SpaceX Starship lands on Mars, according to the Metaculus prediction community.