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"Current and former U.S. officials say they see little sign, at least so far, of a mass popular uprising in Iran or of significant fissures within the government or security forces that will result in a new regime."

"There is an 11% chance that the Iranian government will lose power before 2027."

"There is an 8.9% chance that the Iranian regime will collapse and Reza Pahlavi will become head of state before January 1, 2027."

"There is an 19% chance that the Iranian regime will fall before 2027."

"Regime change is possible but unlikely."

"In any case, the Islamic Republic faces a significant challenge, and its long-term survival is not assured."

“The regime cannot continue that long.”

"If Trump sees it through, and I think he will, I think they're [going to] fall pretty soon, in two, three, four weeks."

"I think the regime will collapse before Iranian New Year (Nowruz), which is March 20th."

Will the Islamic Republic of Iran Experience Regime Collapse by 2027?

The UAE suspended all trade, commercial exchanges, and financial transactions with Iran until further notice after its defense ministry said it detected two ballistic missiles launched from Iran, one falling within UAE territorial waters and the other outside them.

The UAE suspended all trade, commercial exchanges, and financial transactions with Iran until further notice after its defense ministry said it detected two ballistic missiles launched from Iran, one falling within UAE territorial waters and the other outside them.

The UAE Defense Ministry said both missiles were targeting maritime traffic and caused no damage or casualties. The incident followed what the UAE described as a series of Iranian drone strikes on Abu Dhabi National Oil Company vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz.

The UAE Defense Ministry said both missiles were targeting maritime traffic and caused no damage or casualties. The incident followed what the UAE described as a series of Iranian drone strikes on Abu Dhabi National Oil Company vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei rejected the UAE's allegation as baseless, saying it contradicts the principle of good neighborliness, undermines efforts to build trust among regional countries, and should be viewed in light of what he described as a history of false-flag operations.

Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei rejected the UAE's allegation as baseless, saying it contradicts the principle of good neighborliness, undermines efforts to build trust among regional countries, and should be viewed in light of what he described as a history of false-flag operations.

The reported missile incident occurred the day after a 60-day U.S.-Iran ceasefire window expired without a breakthrough. U.S. President Donald Trump ruled out extending the agreement and said the US was not engaged in or planning to restart talks with Tehran.

The reported missile incident occurred the day after a 60-day U.S.-Iran ceasefire window expired without a breakthrough. U.S. President Donald Trump ruled out extending the agreement and said the US was not engaged in or planning to restart talks with Tehran.

Commenting on the UAE's trade embargo, retired U.S. General Mark Kimmitt said Dubai had become Iran's most important trading partner, supplying roughly a third of its annual imports, and that the embargo could hit Tehran harder than any measures imposed by Washington.

Commenting on the UAE's trade embargo, retired U.S. General Mark Kimmitt said Dubai had become Iran's most important trading partner, supplying roughly a third of its annual imports, and that the embargo could hit Tehran harder than any measures imposed by Washington.

The UAE previously suspended direct cargo shipping with Iran in early March before resuming trade in late June. At least a dozen people were reportedly killed and more than 200 injured in the UAE during the broader U.S.-Iran conflict.

The UAE previously suspended direct cargo shipping with Iran in early March before resuming trade in late June. At least a dozen people were reportedly killed and more than 200 injured in the UAE during the broader U.S.-Iran conflict.

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The UAE suspended all trade, commercial exchanges and financial transactions with Iran until further notice after its defense ministry detected two ballistic missiles launched from Iran, one falling within UAE territorial waters and the other outside them.

The UAE suspended all trade, commercial exchanges and financial transactions with Iran until further notice after its defense ministry detected two ballistic missiles launched from Iran, one falling within UAE territorial waters and the other outside them.

Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei rejected the UAE's allegation as "baseless," saying the claim contradicts the principle of good neighborliness and undermines efforts to strengthen trust among regional countries.

Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei rejected the UAE's allegation as "baseless," saying the claim contradicts the principle of good neighborliness and undermines efforts to strengthen trust among regional countries.

The UAE defense ministry said both missiles were targeting maritime traffic and caused no damage or casualties. The incident followed a series of Iranian drone strikes on Abu Dhabi National Oil Company vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz.

The UAE defense ministry said both missiles were targeting maritime traffic and caused no damage or casualties. The incident followed a series of Iranian drone strikes on Abu Dhabi National Oil Company vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz.

The missile incident occurred the day after a 60-day US-Iran ceasefire window expired without a breakthrough. President Trump ruled out extending the agreement and said the US was not engaged in or planning to restart talks with Tehran.

The missile incident occurred the day after a 60-day US-Iran ceasefire window expired without a breakthrough. President Trump ruled out extending the agreement and said the US was not engaged in or planning to restart talks with Tehran.

Retired US general Mark Kimmitt told Al Jazeera that Dubai had become Iran's most important trading partner, supplying roughly a third of Iran's annual imports, and that the UAE embargo could hit Tehran harder than any measures imposed by Washington.

Retired US general Mark Kimmitt told Al Jazeera that Dubai had become Iran's most important trading partner, supplying roughly a third of Iran's annual imports, and that the UAE embargo could hit Tehran harder than any measures imposed by Washington.

The UAE previously suspended direct cargo shipping with Iran in early March before resuming trade in late June. At least a dozen people were killed and more than 200 injured in the UAE during the broader US-Iran conflict.

The UAE previously suspended direct cargo shipping with Iran in early March before resuming trade in late June. At least a dozen people were killed and more than 200 injured in the UAE during the broader US-Iran conflict.

Iran's ballistic missile launches toward the UAE prove Tehran remains a destabilizing force in the Gulf, no matter how much diplomacy gets attempted. The UAE bore the brunt of nearly 3,000 Iranian missile and drone attacks during the war, and suspending trade is the bare minimum response to this kind of aggression. Letting Iranian provocations slide would only invite more attacks on Gulf shipping and civilian infrastructure.

Iran's ballistic missile launches toward the UAE prove Tehran remains a destabilizing force in the Gulf, no matter how much diplomacy gets attempted. The UAE bore the brunt of nearly 3,000 Iranian missile and drone attacks during the war, and suspending trade is the bare minimum response to this kind of aggression. Letting Iranian provocations slide would only invite more attacks on Gulf shipping and civilian infrastructure.

The UAE's missile claim against Iran reeks of a false-flag setup, and Iran is right to reject it outright. With the US and Israel actively destabilizing the region, blaming Tehran for every incident without solid evidence only deepens the chaos and derails trust-building efforts. Halting trade over unverified allegations punishes diplomacy and serves those who want this conflict to keep escalating.

The UAE's missile claim against Iran reeks of a false-flag setup, and Iran is right to reject it outright. With the US and Israel actively destabilizing the region, blaming Tehran for every incident without solid evidence only deepens the chaos and derails trust-building efforts. Halting trade over unverified allegations punishes diplomacy and serves those who want this conflict to keep escalating.

The Iran War

The Israel-Iran Conflict

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The UAE's missile claim against Iran reeks of a false-flag setup, and Iran is right to reject it outright. With the US and Israel destabilizing the region and tensions already high, blaming Tehran for every incident without solid evidence only deepens the chaos and undermines trust-building efforts. Halting trade over unverified allegations punishes diplomacy, closes off channels for de-escalation, and serves those who want this conflict to keep escalating.

The UAE's missile claim against Iran reeks of a false-flag setup, and Iran is right to reject it outright. With the US and Israel destabilizing the region and tensions already high, blaming Tehran for every incident without solid evidence only deepens the chaos and undermines trust-building efforts. Halting trade over unverified allegations punishes diplomacy, closes off channels for de-escalation, and serves those who want this conflict to keep escalating.

Iran's ballistic missile launches toward the UAE prove Tehran remains a destabilizing force in the Gulf, no matter how much diplomacy is attempted. The UAE bore the brunt of nearly 3,000 Iranian missile and drone attacks during the war, and suspending trade is the bare minimum response to this continued aggression. Letting Iranian provocations slide without consequences would only invite further attacks on Gulf shipping and civilian infrastructure.

Iran's ballistic missile launches toward the UAE prove Tehran remains a destabilizing force in the Gulf, no matter how much diplomacy is attempted. The UAE bore the brunt of nearly 3,000 Iranian missile and drone attacks during the war, and suspending trade is the bare minimum response to this continued aggression. Letting Iranian provocations slide without consequences would only invite further attacks on Gulf shipping and civilian infrastructure.

There is a 20 percent chance that Iran will possess a nuclear weapon before 2041, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

There is a 20 percent chance that Iran will possess a nuclear weapon before 2041, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

UAE Cuts Iran Ties After Ballistic Missile Strike

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UAE Cuts Iran Ties After Ballistic Missile Strike

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