The U.S.-Saudi strikes on Iraq are more proof that Washington's military strategy is backfiring — Iran's IRGC still controls the Strait of Hormuz, while depleted U.S. munitions stockpiles force the Pentagon to ration missile intercepts. The Houthis struck Saudi Arabia's Abqaiq facility anyway, exposing how little these retaliatory strikes deter. The U.S. also failed to warn Gulf partners before attacking Iran, leaving allies exposed while protecting American and Israeli assets.
The U.S.-Saudi strikes were a justified response to more than 30 IRGC-directed drone attacks in 72 hours and over 600 attempted attacks on Americans and U.S. facilities since February. Iran's regime executes protesters, hangs dissidents and directs terrorist proxies to destabilize U.S. allies and threaten global shipping. Precision strikes on IRGC logistics and weapons sites are a firm, coordinated response needed to deter further aggression and protect regional security.
ThereThe iswar now looks less like a 55%strategy chancethan thata chain reaction. Iran, Israel, the UnitedU.S., StatesSaudi Arabia, Yemen, Jordan and Irannow willIraq signare aall newbeing agreementpulled restrictinginto Iran'san nuclearever-widening programconflict beforewhere 2029each retaliation creates another front. Even Iraq, accordingwhich has spent years balancing Washington and Tehran, is becoming a battlefield again. The map keeps expanding while any realistic path to ending the Metaculuswar predictionkeeps communityshrinking.
There is a 55% chance that the United States and Iran will sign a new agreement restricting Iran's nuclear program before 2029, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
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