Allowing US bombers to fly strike missions from RAF Fairford is a defensible act of collective self-defense, protecting vital shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz. The arrangement, backed by both the Starmer and Burnham governments, targets Iranian military infrastructure that has been used to attack commercial vessels. Pulling back now would reward Iranian aggression and abandon allies who depend on open sea lanes.
Letting the US launch B-1 bomber strikes from RAF Fairford has made British soil a direct target, with Iran's IRGC explicitly naming the base as legitimate for retaliation. UK air base security is already dangerously lax, and Iran has a documented record of plotting attacks on British soil. Recommitting to this arrangement drags the UK deeper into a war that has already cost American lives and pushed oil past $100 a barrel.
There is a 9% chance that the United States will conduct a ground invasion of Iran before 2027, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
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