BBC News

US launches fresh strikes on Iran as Trump warns Tehran it 'better behave'

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The Times of Israel

Us Launches New Wave Of Strikes Against Iran Military Says

Metaculus

Strait Of Hormuz Normalization Date

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U.S. Department of State

Kingdom of Saudi Arabia  Advanced Precision Kill Weapon Systems

Al Arabiya English

Iran Ghalibaf Says Tehran Has No Reason To Honor Us Mou Without Benefits

Arab News

US expands attacks deeper into Iran as Tehran retaliates against Jordan, Bahrain and Kuwait

FOX News

US resumes blockade on Iran, launches strikes after attacks in Strait of Hormuz

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TheStudyofWar

Guardian

US attacks oil tanker in strait of Hormuz as strikes reported in Tehran

Tasnim News Agency

Iranians Stand Firm to Protect Countrys Security, Natl Interests: Speaker

Mehr News Agency

Iran focused on defense, has no plan for talks: Spox

Gulf News

US launches fresh Iran strikes as Tehran claims drone attacks on Kuwait, Bahrain

US Troops Gathering Point in Kuwait Targeted in IRGC Combined Missile, Drone Strikes

PressTV

Irans Armed Forces strike US targets with missiles, drones amid warning of expanding retaliation

CENTCOM

Expanding strikes, US hits targets around Tehran and province that is home to Iran’s missile program

Reuters

Iran says it targeted bases in Kuwait and Jordan after new wave of US strikes

Iran reports fresh strikes near Qeshm Island and accuses US over barbaric hospital attack  as it happened

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Tulsi Gabbard

Mehdi Hasan

Tamir Hayman

Kamal Kharazi

Barry R McCaffrey

Iran Watch

Hui Zhang

War Monitor

S.L. Kanthan

The New York Times

"No, we're not thinking about nuclear weapons."

"We have no intention of obtaining these weapons at all."

"Iran doesn't have nukes, isn't building nukes, and hasn't made the decision to build nukes."

"Iran doesn't have a bomb, and doesn't appear to be trying to make a bomb."

"They are definitely going for a nuclear weapon there is no question."

"They can have [a nuclear weapon], you know, in a matter of months, I would say."

Iran could produce a nuclear weapon "within a few months, less than a year."

Will Iran Possess a Nuclear Weapon?

Alex Vatanka

Mona Yacoubian

Daniel Byman

Kalshi

J.P. Morgan

The Washington Post

Mossad Commentary

Neil Stone

Suzanne Maloney

Arash Azizi

Al Jazeera Centre for Studies

Victor Davis Hanson

Witold Repetowicz

Mehdi Parpanchi

Mohammed M. Hafez

Stimson Center

"Current and former U.S. officials say they see little sign, at least so far, of a mass popular uprising in Iran or of significant fissures within the government or security forces that will result in a new regime."

"There is an 11% chance that the Iranian government will lose power before 2027."

"There is an 8.9% chance that the Iranian regime will collapse and Reza Pahlavi will become head of state before January 1, 2027."

"There is an 19% chance that the Iranian regime will fall before 2027."

"Regime change is possible but unlikely."

"In any case, the Islamic Republic faces a significant challenge, and its long-term survival is not assured."

“The regime cannot continue that long.”

"Regime collapse or irreversible degradation is more likely than regime survival (65% likelihood)."

"If Trump sees it through, and I think he will, I think they're [going to] fall pretty soon, in two, three, four weeks."

"I think the regime will collapse before Iranian New Year (Nowruz), which is March 20th."

Will the Islamic Republic of Iran Experience Regime Collapse by 2027?

After <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.verity.news/story/2026/us-reimposes-naval-blockade-on-iran">reimposing a naval blockade on Iranian ports</a>, the U.S. on Wednesday disabled a Curacao-flagged oil tanker, the M/T Belma, firing Hellfire missiles into the ship's smokestack after it ignored warnings while heading toward Kharg Island.

Iran International

After reimposing a naval blockade on Iranian ports, the U.S. on Wednesday disabled a Curacao-flagged oil tanker, the M/T Belma, firing Hellfire missiles into the ship's smokestack after it ignored warnings while heading toward Kharg Island.

The U.S. military said it completed an evening wave of strikes on Iran on Wednesday, targeting command centers, air defense sites, missile and drone capabilities, and coastal surveillance facilities, including in Bandar Abbas on the Strait of Hormuz.

U.S. Central Command

The U.S. military said it completed an evening wave of strikes on Iran on Wednesday, targeting command centers, air defense sites, missile and drone capabilities, and coastal surveillance facilities, including in Bandar Abbas on the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran's military said it struck U.S. targets in Kuwait and Bahrain with drones, targeting radar systems, a Patriot air defense system and fuel storage facilities. Jordan said it intercepted eight Iranian missiles fired toward its territory.

Iran's military said it struck U.S. targets in Kuwait and Bahrain with drones, targeting radar systems, a Patriot air defense system and fuel storage facilities. Jordan said it intercepted eight Iranian missiles fired toward its territory.

Iran's top negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, said Tehran had "no reason" to adhere to <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.verity.news/story/2026/trump-iran-sign-historic-ceasefire-deal-at-g">the Memorandum of Understanding</a> with the U.S. if it did not benefit from it, adding that Iran's security depended on maintaining "Iranian arrangements" in the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran's top negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, said Tehran had "no reason" to adhere to the Memorandum of Understanding with the U.S. if it did not benefit from it, adding that Iran's security depended on maintaining "Iranian arrangements" in the Strait of Hormuz.

This comes as U.S. President Donald Trump announced that Iran had released American citizen Dena Karari, who had been detained since December 2024, writing on Truth Social that the U.S. "appreciates this gesture of Goodwill by Iran."

Donald Trump

Truthsocial

This comes as U.S. President Donald Trump announced that Iran had released American citizen Dena Karari, who had been detained since December 2024, writing on Truth Social that the U.S. "appreciates this gesture of Goodwill by Iran."

Meanwhile, the U.S. State Department approved the sale of an estimated $1.96 billion in weapons to Saudi Arabia as hostilities in the region intensified. Brent crude oil traded above $85 a barrel on Wednesday, more than 15% higher than before the conflict began.

Meanwhile, the U.S. State Department approved the sale of an estimated $1.96 billion in weapons to Saudi Arabia as hostilities in the region intensified. Brent crude oil traded above $85 a barrel on Wednesday, more than 15% higher than before the conflict began.

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The U.S. military completed an evening wave of strikes on Iran on July 15, targeting command centers, air defense sites, missile and drone capabilities, and coastal surveillance facilities, including in Bandar Abbas on the Strait of Hormuz.

The U.S. military completed an evening wave of strikes on Iran on July 15, targeting command centers, air defense sites, missile and drone capabilities, and coastal surveillance facilities, including in Bandar Abbas on the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran's top negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said Tehran had "no reason" to adhere to the memorandum of understanding with the U.S. if Iran did not benefit from it, adding that Iran's security depended on maintaining "Iranian arrangements" in the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran's top negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said Tehran had "no reason" to adhere to the memorandum of understanding with the U.S. if Iran did not benefit from it, adding that Iran's security depended on maintaining "Iranian arrangements" in the Strait of Hormuz.

The U.S. reimposed a naval blockade on Iranian ports and disabled a Curacao-flagged oil tanker, the M/T Belma, after it ignored warnings while heading toward Kharg Island, with U.S. aircraft firing Hellfire missiles into the ship's smokestack.

The U.S. reimposed a naval blockade on Iranian ports and disabled a Curacao-flagged oil tanker, the M/T Belma, after it ignored warnings while heading toward Kharg Island, with U.S. aircraft firing Hellfire missiles into the ship's smokestack.

Trump said Wednesday that Iran had released American citizen Dena Karari, who had been detained since December 2024, writing on Truth Social that the U.S. "appreciates this gesture of Goodwill by Iran." Her attorney, Jared Genser, confirmed she was traveling back to the U.S.

Trump said Wednesday that Iran had released American citizen Dena Karari, who had been detained since December 2024, writing on Truth Social that the U.S. "appreciates this gesture of Goodwill by Iran." Her attorney, Jared Genser, confirmed she was traveling back to the U.S.

The U.S. State Department approved the sale of an estimated $1.96 billion in weapons to Saudi Arabia as hostilities in the region intensified. Brent crude oil traded above $85 a barrel on Wednesday, more than 15% higher than before the conflict began.

The U.S. State Department approved the sale of an estimated $1.96 billion in weapons to Saudi Arabia as hostilities in the region intensified. Brent crude oil traded above $85 a barrel on Wednesday, more than 15% higher than before the conflict began.

The U.S. has repeatedly violated the June 17 MoU, giving Iran every reason to abandon its commitments and stand firm. Washington's strikes on southern Iran and continued sanctions prove it never negotiated in good faith. Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz is legally secured under Article 5 of that agreement, and American military pressure won't change that.

The U.S. has repeatedly violated the June 17 MoU, giving Iran every reason to abandon its commitments and stand firm. Washington's strikes on southern Iran and continued sanctions prove it never negotiated in good faith. Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz is legally secured under Article 5 of that agreement, and American military pressure won't change that.

Iran's grip on the Strait of Hormuz is an illegal power grab that the U.S. is right to confront with force. American strikes have hit command centers, air defenses and missile capabilities, and the naval blockade is squeezing Iran's ability to threaten global shipping. Iran's drone attacks on vessels using alternative routes show exactly why military pressure must continue.

Iran's grip on the Strait of Hormuz is an illegal power grab that the U.S. is right to confront with force. American strikes have hit command centers, air defenses and missile capabilities, and the naval blockade is squeezing Iran's ability to threaten global shipping. Iran's drone attacks on vessels using alternative routes show exactly why military pressure must continue.

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The Iran War

The US-Iran Conflict

US strikes Iranian missile sites

U.S. Strikes Iran as Mideast Conflict Escalates

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Iran's grip on the Strait of Hormuz is an illegal power grab that the U.S. is right to confront with force. American naval blockade is squeezing Iran's ability to threaten global shipping, and Iran's drone attacks on vessels using alternative routes show why military pressure must continue.

Iran's grip on the Strait of Hormuz is an illegal power grab that the U.S. is right to confront with force. American naval blockade is squeezing Iran's ability to threaten global shipping, and Iran's drone attacks on vessels using alternative routes show why military pressure must continue.

Washington's repeated strikes on Iran prove it never negotiated in good faith, giving Iran every reason to abandon its commitments and stand firm. Iran's control over the strait is legally secured under Article 5 of the June 17 MoU, and American military pressure won't change that.

Washington's repeated strikes on Iran prove it never negotiated in good faith, giving Iran every reason to abandon its commitments and stand firm. Iran's control over the strait is legally secured under Article 5 of the June 17 MoU, and American military pressure won't change that.

CENTCOM statements ignore realities on the ground. The United States is launching missiles into Iran without a clear path to meaningful success while depleting already strained offensive stockpiles. These reckless strikes could weaken national readiness and leave lasting strategic consequences.

CENTCOM statements ignore realities on the ground. The United States is launching missiles into Iran without a clear path to meaningful success while depleting already strained offensive stockpiles. These reckless strikes could weaken national readiness and leave lasting strategic consequences.

Daniel Davis Deep Dive

There's a 50% chance that traffic through the Strait of Hormuz will return to normal levels before Nov. 27, 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

There's a 50% chance that traffic through the Strait of Hormuz will return to normal levels before Nov. 27, 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

US Attacks Oil Tanker in Strait of Hormuz

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US Attacks Oil Tanker in Strait of Hormuz

U.S.US StrikesAttacks IranOil asTanker Mideastin ConflictStrait Escalatesof Hormuz

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