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Canada Rushes to Build Up Its Military as U.S. Relationship Frays

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Metaculus

When Will Canada Join The Eu

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Canada Chose NATO on Submarines. Now, it Must Keep South Korea Close.

Financial Times

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bundeskanzler

5 key takeaways from Canada choosing Germany's submarine bid

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Euractiv

Canada selects German bid for up to 12 submarines

Prime Minister of Canada

Prime Minister Carney announces the preferred supplier for the Canadian Patrol Submarine Project  the largest defence procurement in Canadian history

iMarine

Canada Selects TKMS as Preferred Bidder for Landmark Submarine Procurement, Largest Defence Deal in History

BBC News

Canada makes largest defence procurement deal in its history, citing 'dangerous and divided world'

Al Jazeera

Canada picks Germany’s TKMS for new submarines

Defense News

Canada picks Germanys TKMS for historic submarine buy, in nod to Europe

The Globe and Mail

Canada picks an ally in its new wave of geopolitical military spending

Ottawa picks Germanys TKMS to build Canadas new submarines, sources say

Donald Trump

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James G. Stavridis

"I doubt President Trump will withdraw from NATO."

"I do not expect Trump to withdraw from NATO."

"Donald Trump wants NATO to be strong. He wants us to remain in NATO."

America's there "100 percent [if NATO allies pay their fair share]."

"He might try to pull the United States out of NATO."

"In a second Trump term, we'd almost certainly withdraw from NATO."

Trump "talked many times about getting out of NATO behind closed doors and publicly. So that's just a fact."

"Trump is setting up the pretext for cutting off aid to Ukraine and pulling the US out of NATO."

Will the US Pull Out of NATO?

Justin Trudeau

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"America is not Canada, and Canada never, ever will be part of America in any way, shape or form."

"Canada will never be the 51st [US] state."

"There isn't a snowball's chance in hell that Canada would become part of the United States."

"Barring a military blitzkrieg to seize Ottawa, the chances of Canada becoming the 51st state are approximately zero."

"We are not going to be annexed [by the US]."

"Canada is not for sale and will never be the 51st [US] state."

"I think that the Canadian people, many of them, would love to join the United States with no tariffs, with lower taxes."

"The artificial line of separation [between Canada and the US] drawn many years ago will finally disappear."

Will Canada Join the United States of America as the 51st State?

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney announced Monday that Germany's ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems (TKMS) had been selected as the preferred supplier to build up to 12 submarines for the Royal Canadian Navy.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney announced Monday that Germany's ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems (TKMS) had been selected as the preferred supplier to build up to 12 submarines for the Royal Canadian Navy.

The TKMS Type 212CD diesel-electric submarine, developed jointly with Norway, beat a competing bid from South Korea's Hanwha Ocean. According to Canada's The Globe and Mail, the deal is estimated at around $20-30 billion CAD ($14 -21 billion), though lifetime maintenance and upgrade costs potentially exceed $40-50 billion CAD.

The TKMS Type 212CD diesel-electric submarine, developed jointly with Norway, beat a competing bid from South Korea's Hanwha Ocean. According to Canada's The Globe and Mail, the deal is estimated at around $20-30 billion CAD ($14 -21 billion), though lifetime maintenance and upgrade costs potentially exceed $40-50 billion CAD.

Canada intends to conclude contract negotiations with TKMS no later than the end of 2027, while the first four submarines are expected to be delivered by 2034. If talks fail, Canada retains the right to designate Hanwha Ocean as the preferred supplier.

National Post

Canada intends to conclude contract negotiations with TKMS no later than the end of 2027, while the first four submarines are expected to be delivered by 2034. If talks fail, Canada retains the right to designate Hanwha Ocean as the preferred supplier.

The new submarines are intended to replace Canada's four aging Victoria-class vessels, which were built in the 1980s and 1990s and first used by the U.K. Carney noted that only one of the four is currently operational.

The new submarines are intended to replace Canada's four aging Victoria-class vessels, which were built in the 1980s and 1990s and first used by the U.K. Carney noted that only one of the four is currently operational.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz welcomed the decision, calling it "a strong signal of transatlantic and European cooperation in the defense industry." The procurement process took less than two years, a record time for Canada, according to officials.

Friedrich Merz

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz welcomed the decision, calling it "a strong signal of transatlantic and European cooperation in the defense industry." The procurement process took less than two years, a record time for Canada, according to officials.

The announcement came the day before <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.verity.news/story/2026/russia-strikes-kyiv-as-nato-summit-opens-in-ankara">the NATO summit in Turkey</a>, where allies were expected to present plans to meet a defense spending target of 5% of GDP by 2035. Canada has already met NATO's 2% GDP spending benchmark ahead of schedule.

The announcement came the day before the NATO summit in Turkey, where allies were expected to present plans to meet a defense spending target of 5% of GDP by 2035. Canada has already met NATO's 2% GDP spending benchmark ahead of schedule.

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The TKMS Type 212CD diesel-electric submarine, developed jointly with Norway, beat a competing bid from South Korea's Hanwha Ocean. The deal is estimated at around €14.7 billion, though lifetime maintenance and upgrade costs potentially exceed €60 billion.

The TKMS Type 212CD diesel-electric submarine, developed jointly with Norway, beat a competing bid from South Korea's Hanwha Ocean. The deal is estimated at around €14.7 billion, though lifetime maintenance and upgrade costs potentially exceed €60 billion.

National Post #

The new submarines are intended to replace Canada's four aging Victoria-class vessels, which were built in the 1980s and 1990s and first used by the UK. Carney noted that only one of the four is currently operational.

The new submarines are intended to replace Canada's four aging Victoria-class vessels, which were built in the 1980s and 1990s and first used by the UK. Carney noted that only one of the four is currently operational.

This is the boldest defense move in a generation. The 212CD is NATO-interoperable, Arctic-capable and stealthy, and the deal brings tens of billions in economic investment and over 100,000 jobs nationwide. This kind of procurement builds real sovereignty and industrial strength simultaneously.

This is the boldest defense move in a generation. The 212CD is NATO-interoperable, Arctic-capable and stealthy, and the deal brings tens of billions in economic investment and over 100,000 jobs nationwide. This kind of procurement builds real sovereignty and industrial strength simultaneously.

This deal prioritizes NATO politics over Canada's actual military needs. Hanwha offered more money, earlier delivery and greater capability, yet lost anyway. Picking the European option when a stronger Indo-Pacific alternative existed is a $100 billion bet on prestige over substance.

This deal prioritizes NATO politics over Canada's actual military needs. Hanwha offered more money, earlier delivery and greater capability, yet lost anyway. Picking the European option when a stronger Indo-Pacific alternative existed is a $100 billion bet on prestige over substance.

Lee Humphrey

Wayne

Canada's submarine choice favored TKMS to strengthen NATO interoperability, Arctic readiness and allied defense integration. Yet Hanwha's bid highlighted South Korea's growing role as a trusted Indo-Pacific security partner, which is why Canada should deepen defense, technology, energy and industrial cooperation with Seoul to ensure stronger strategic ties beyond the submarine decision.

Canada's submarine choice favored TKMS to strengthen NATO interoperability, Arctic readiness and allied defense integration. Yet Hanwha's bid highlighted South Korea's growing role as a trusted Indo-Pacific security partner, which is why Canada should deepen defense, technology, energy and industrial cooperation with Seoul to ensure stronger strategic ties beyond the submarine decision.

There's a 50% chance that Canada will become a full member state of the European Union before October 2073, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

There's a 50% chance that Canada will become a full member state of the European Union before October 2073, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Kelly Clark/Bloomberg/Getty Images

Canada Picks Germany's TKMS to Build 12 Submarines

Kelly Clark/Bloomberg/Getty Images

Canada Picks Germany's TKMS to Build 12 Submarines

Canada

Germany

Military

Politics

This deal prioritizes NATO politics over Canada's actual military needs. Hanwha offered more money, earlier delivery and greater capability, yet lost anyway. Picking the European option when a stronger Indo-Pacific alternative existed is a $100 billion bet on NATO clout over substance.

This deal prioritizes NATO politics over Canada's actual military needs. Hanwha offered more money, earlier delivery and greater capability, yet lost anyway. Picking the European option when a stronger Indo-Pacific alternative existed is a $100 billion bet on NATO clout over substance.

Canada Picks Germany's TKMS to Build 12 Submarines

Canada Picks Germany's TKMS to Build 12 Submarines

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Canada Picks Germany's TKMS to Build 12 Submarines

Canada Picks Germany's TKMS to Build 12 Submarines

The Spin

Metaculus Prediction

Public Figures

The Controversies

Schake

Kupchan

Vance

Trump

Stone

Bolton

Haley

Filipkowski

Carney

Poilievre

Trudeau

Boot

Joly

Ford

Waltz

Trump

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