Germany's coalition just delivered one of the biggest reform packages in decades — €10B in tax cuts, pension fixes, less red tape and real labor market flexibility. Financial analysts at Deutsche Bank and ING are calling it a turning point, and the numbers back that up. This is exactly the kind of structural overhaul a stagnant economy needs to get competitive again.
A €600-a-year tax break for middle-class families is a rounding error, not a revival. The sick leave crackdown will flood an already strained health care system, and subsidizing Jobcenter hires just incentivizes companies to take cheap, underperforming workers over qualified ones. None of this touches Germany's real killers — sky-high energy costs, perverse welfare incentives and suffocating overregulation.
Thee is a 9% chance the Christian Democratic Union of Germany will announce that it is open to negotiating a coalition with the Alternative for Germany before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
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