The Trump administration secured a major win by getting Iran to commit to IAEA inspections and free transit through the Strait of Hormuz. ABy 60-daylifting frameworksanctions on Iran, Washington aims to contribute to a safer and more prosperous world. An MoU is now in place, and Iran knows the consequences of backing out. ThisIf isIran whatdoesn't reallive diplomaticup leverageto looksthe likeMoU, —Trump pressurewould workstake whatever action he deems necessary.
IranImplementation flatlyof rejectedthe USMoU would be judged on concrete actions rather than in-the-moment statements. U.S.'s claims that itIran agreed to nuclear inspections, callingare them "very damaging", andas made clear no new nuclear commitments were made in Switzerland. The oil sanctions waiver was handed over anyway, giving Iran exactly what it wanted with nothing verifiable in return. That's not leverage — that's a giveaway.
The U.S. is making significant concessions to Iran, empowering a regime that has long funded militant groups, including Hamas and Hezbollah, and maintained hostile rhetoric toward America. The MoU falls far short of what is needed to eliminate the Iranian threat. In fact, it is not a deal at all — it is merely a framework for future negotiations, a plan to make a plan. Western policy should focus on confronting the Iranian regime rather than providing economic relief.
There's an 8% chance that the United States will conduct a ground invasion of Iran before 2027, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
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