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"No, we're not thinking about nuclear weapons."

"We have no intention of obtaining these weapons at all."

"Iran doesn't have nukes, isn't building nukes, and hasn't made the decision to build nukes."

"Iran doesn't have a bomb, and doesn't appear to be trying to make a bomb."

"They are definitely going for a nuclear weapon there is no question."

"They can have [a nuclear weapon], you know, in a matter of months, I would say."

Iran could produce a nuclear weapon "within a few months, less than a year."

Will Iran Possess a Nuclear Weapon?

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"Current and former U.S. officials say they see little sign, at least so far, of a mass popular uprising in Iran or of significant fissures within the government or security forces that will result in a new regime."

"There is an 11% chance that the Iranian government will lose power before 2027."

"There is an 8.9% chance that the Iranian regime will collapse and Reza Pahlavi will become head of state before January 1, 2027."

"There is an 19% chance that the Iranian regime will fall before 2027."

"Regime change is possible but unlikely."

"In any case, the Islamic Republic faces a significant challenge, and its long-term survival is not assured."

“The regime cannot continue that long.”

"Regime collapse or irreversible degradation is more likely than regime survival (65% likelihood)."

"If Trump sees it through, and I think he will, I think they're [going to] fall pretty soon, in two, three, four weeks."

"I think the regime will collapse before Iranian New Year (Nowruz), which is March 20th."

Will the Islamic Republic of Iran Experience Regime Collapse by 2027?

The US Treasury issued a 60-day general license on June 22 waiving sanctions on Iranian oil, authorizing the production, delivery and sale of Iranian crude oil and petroleum products through Aug. 21. The move followed the first high-level talks under the Islamabad memorandum of understanding signed June 17.

The US Treasury issued a 60-day general license on June 22 waiving sanctions on Iranian oil, authorizing the production, delivery and sale of Iranian crude oil and petroleum products through Aug. 21. The move followed the first high-level talks under the Islamabad memorandum of understanding signed June 17.

US Vice President JD Vance said talks in Switzerland had laid "a very good foundation for a successful final deal," while Iran's Foreign Ministry said Tehran made "no new commitments" on nuclear inspections. Mediators Pakistan and Qatar said negotiators agreed on a roadmap toward a permanent deal within 60 days.

US Vice President JD Vance said talks in Switzerland had laid "a very good foundation for a successful final deal," while Iran's Foreign Ministry said Tehran made "no new commitments" on nuclear inspections. Mediators Pakistan and Qatar said negotiators agreed on a roadmap toward a permanent deal within 60 days.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent cited Iran's commitment to "free and open transit" in the Strait of Hormuz and permission for IAEA inspectors to enter the country as reasons for the sanctions waiver. Iran's Foreign Ministry said any engagement with the IAEA would follow procedures set by parliament and the Supreme National Security Council.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent cited Iran's commitment to "free and open transit" in the Strait of Hormuz and permission for IAEA inspectors to enter the country as reasons for the sanctions waiver. Iran's Foreign Ministry said any engagement with the IAEA would follow procedures set by parliament and the Supreme National Security Council.

Iran's chief negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said the Strait of Hormuz "will never return to its pre-war conditions" and would be administered by Iran under its own arrangements in accordance with international law. He also confirmed that the lifting of oil sanctions and the release of frozen Iranian funds were finalized during the Switzerland talks.

Iran's chief negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said the Strait of Hormuz "will never return to its pre-war conditions" and would be administered by Iran under its own arrangements in accordance with international law. He also confirmed that the lifting of oil sanctions and the release of frozen Iranian funds were finalized during the Switzerland talks.

Oil prices fell more than 3.5% to around $77.70 per barrel following the sanctions waiver announcement, as tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz increased. Shipping firm Clarksons noted that while daily transits remained below the 125 crossings recorded before the Iran hostilities, the trend was positive.

Oil prices fell more than 3.5% to around $77.70 per barrel following the sanctions waiver announcement, as tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz increased. Shipping firm Clarksons noted that while daily transits remained below the 125 crossings recorded before the Iran hostilities, the trend was positive.

The sanctions relief is one of three financial incentives offered to Iran, alongside the unfreezing of more than $100 billion in assets and a $300 billion Gulf Arab-financed reconstruction fund. Vance said any unfrozen funds would be used to purchase American agricultural products such as soy, corn and wheat, with Qatar overseeing the process.

The sanctions relief is one of three financial incentives offered to Iran, alongside the unfreezing of more than $100 billion in assets and a $300 billion Gulf Arab-financed reconstruction fund. Vance said any unfrozen funds would be used to purchase American agricultural products such as soy, corn and wheat, with Qatar overseeing the process.

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US Waives Iran Oil Sanctions Amid Nuclear Talks

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The Trump administration secured a major win by getting Iran to commit to IAEA inspections and free transit through the Strait of Hormuz. A 60-day framework is now in place, and Iran knows the consequences of backing out. This is what real diplomatic leverage looks like — pressure works.

The Trump administration secured a major win by getting Iran to commit to IAEA inspections and free transit through the Strait of Hormuz. A 60-day framework is now in place, and Iran knows the consequences of backing out. This is what real diplomatic leverage looks like — pressure works.

Scott Bessent

Donald Trump

Truthsocial

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Iran flatly rejected US claims that it agreed to nuclear inspections, calling them "very damaging" and made clear no new nuclear commitments were made in Switzerland. The oil sanctions waiver was handed over anyway, giving Iran exactly what it wanted with nothing verifiable in return. That's not leverage — that's a giveaway.

Iran flatly rejected US claims that it agreed to nuclear inspections, calling them "very damaging" and made clear no new nuclear commitments were made in Switzerland. The oil sanctions waiver was handed over anyway, giving Iran exactly what it wanted with nothing verifiable in return. That's not leverage — that's a giveaway.

US Waives Iran Oil Sanctions Amid Nuclear Talks

US Waives Iran Oil Sanctions Amid Nuclear Talks

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US Waives Iran Oil Sanctions Amid Nuclear Talks

US Waives Iran Oil Sanctions Amid Nuclear Talks

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