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“A collapse appears unlikely for now.”

"The collapse of the Iranian government remains unlikely in the near term."

It's "unclear if the demonstrations would unseat the leadership, pointing to the sheer depth and resilience of Iran's repressive apparatus."

"Our core assumption is that the regime will survive as long as its leaders and security forces retain the ability and willingness to suppress domestic unrest."

"It's going to take a few different ingredients for the regime to fall," including "defections in the security services and cracks in the Islamic republic's political elite."

"What this heralds for the Islamic Republic in the near term is neither revolution nor collapse, but rather a slow-motion metastasis that is echoing across the political establishment, the economy, and society."

"Change now looks inevitable; regime collapse is possible but not guaranteed."

"If the regime does not fall this year, it may nonetheless enter a phase of irreversible weakening—one in which future shocks could prove far more difficult to absorb."

"The regime's chances of survival have reached a critical low, and its strategy of perseverance through coercion is being tested by a population that has largely lost faith in the state's ability to govern."

"The plain fact is that the Khamenei regime’s days are numbered."

Will the Current Iranian Government Collapse?

The IDF published a map on Thursday showing its forces deployed up to 10 kilometers inside southern Lebanon, a day after the U.S. and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding calling for an immediate and permanent end to military operations on all fronts, including Lebanon.

The IDF published a map on Thursday showing its forces deployed up to 10 kilometers inside southern Lebanon, a day after the U.S. and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding calling for an immediate and permanent end to military operations on all fronts, including Lebanon.

Two Israeli officials told Reuters that Israel was holding "stubborn" negotiations with the U.S. over maintaining its troop deployment in southern Lebanon, with one official saying the outcome would depend on whether Trump "decides to force the issue" by threatening repercussions.

Two Israeli officials told Reuters that Israel was holding "stubborn" negotiations with the U.S. over maintaining its troop deployment in southern Lebanon, with one official saying the outcome would depend on whether Trump "decides to force the issue" by threatening repercussions.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated that any continued Israeli occupation of Lebanese territory would violate the U.S.-Iran memorandum, saying "the end of the war includes the end of occupation." Iran has consistently maintained that ending Israeli operations in Lebanon is an inseparable part of any ceasefire deal.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated that any continued Israeli occupation of Lebanese territory would violate the U.S.-Iran memorandum, saying "the end of the war includes the end of occupation." Iran has consistently maintained that ending Israeli operations in Lebanon is an inseparable part of any ceasefire deal.

Israel and Lebanon agreed to renew their ceasefire and establish pilot security zones inside Lebanon from which Hezbollah operatives would be barred, following a fourth round of U.S.-mediated talks. The two sides are set to meet again on June 22 to work toward a comprehensive agreement.

Israel and Lebanon agreed to renew their ceasefire and establish pilot security zones inside Lebanon from which Hezbollah operatives would be barred, following a fourth round of U.S.-mediated talks. The two sides are set to meet again on June 22 to work toward a comprehensive agreement.

Amnesty International reported that Israel radically expanded its use of mass evacuation orders in Lebanon in 2026, issuing 135 such orders between March and May compared to 36 during the 2024 escalation. The organization said forced displacement and no-return orders in southern Lebanon amount to unlawful transfer, which it described as a war crime.

Amnesty International reported that Israel radically expanded its use of mass evacuation orders in Lebanon in 2026, issuing 135 such orders between March and May compared to 36 during the 2024 escalation. The organization said forced displacement and no-return orders in southern Lebanon amount to unlawful transfer, which it described as a war crime.

Lebanese health ministry figures show at least 3,516 people have been killed in Lebanon since the start of the war, while the UN reports more than one million people have registered as displaced. Israel says 26 soldiers and four civilians have been killed on both sides of the border.

Lebanese health ministry figures show at least 3,516 people have been killed in Lebanon since the start of the war, while the UN reports more than one million people have registered as displaced. Israel says 26 soldiers and four civilians have been killed on both sides of the border.

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The Iran War

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Israel issues new Lebanon occupation map, in talks with US over deployment

IDF Holds Ground in Lebanon Amid US-Iran Peace Deal

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