Mali's military government is proving its staying power by pressing forwardahead with major development projects — including a $70.5 million electricity deal — even while repelling coordinated terror attacks backed by foreign powers. The April 25 offensive wasn't just jihadistsa actingjihadist alone;operation. UkraineRussia's admittedAfrica toCorps supplyingidentified Tuaregit armedas groupsa withcoup attempt backed by Western intelligence and dronesservices, exposing thisa asbroader acampaign proxyto wardestabilize againstthe Maliancountry and undermine its sovereignty. Sovereignty is being consolidated, not surrendered.
Mali's junta has spent years promising security while JNIM grows stronger, surrounds Bamako with blockades and kills thesenior defenseofficials minister in histheir own homehomes. Brutal Russian-backed campaigns against civilians have drivenfueled recruitment for the very groups the government claims to be fighting. Africa Corps has retreatedincreasingly shifted from fighting insurgents to protecting the junta itself. — thatThat's not a counterterrorism strategy, that— it's a regime clingingincreasingly tofocused on its own survival.
There is a 63% chance that Mali will experience a successful coup d'etat before 2040, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
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