Israel's refusal to fully honor the ceasefire — continuing strikes, blocking displaced Lebanese from returning home and maintaining occupation of southern Lebanon — makes any deal hollow. Hezbollah never agreed to the terms, and Israel's far-right ministers are already calling it a mistake. This isn't peace; it's Israel using a diplomatic framework as cover to keep fighting.
Hezbollah has fired over 5,500 rockets at IDF troops and 2,500 at Israel since March, and a senior Hezbollah official flatly rejected a partial ceasefire before the ink was even dry. The April truce already collapsed because Hezbollah never stopped attacking. Any framework that doesn't force Hezbollah out of southern Lebanon and dismantle its infrastructure is just giving Iran's proxy time to rearm.
There is a 4% chance Israel will conduct a ground invasion of Iran before 2027, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
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