The Washington Post

Lebanon Ceasefire Falters Trump Pushes Iran Deal

Al Jazeera

Iran war day 89: Lebanon strikes kill 31 as ceasefire tensions rise

Reuters

White House Says Iranian Media Report Memorandum Understanding Is False 2026 05 27

CNBC

Oil prices fall more than 4% after Rubio says U.S. will give Iran talks 'every chance to succeed'

Ynet

Trump says Iran deal may hinge on Gulf normalization with Israel

BBC News

Donald Trump says US 'not satisfied' with Iran deal yet

Trump says 'not satisfied' yet on Iran deal

TRT World

Iran sees 'low' risk of renewed war with US

France 24

20260526 Iran Says Us Violated Ceasefire With Strikes Near Hormuz War

Iran war spending drains US military budgets, triggering cancelled trainings, delayed maintenance

Iranwire

CENTCOM: 109 Merchant Vessels Rerouted Amid Maritime Blockade of Iran

ABC News

Trump says US 'not satisfied' with Iran peace deal proposals

Kurdistan24

Trump Rules Out Sanctions Relief for Iran's Uranium as Rubio Says Deal is Within Reach

FOX News

Trump says Iran is 'negotiating on fumes,' believes regime thought they could outwait him

Metaculus

Iran Obtains Nuclear Weapon by 2030

Clay Fuller

Shawn Harris

"We should not put ground troops on the ground because this is not a war we should be in."

"Our country is safer because of what President Trump has done regarding Iran."

Where Do Candidates Stand on US Involvement in the Iran War?

Alex Vatanka

Mona Yacoubian

Daniel Byman

Polymarket

Kalshi

J.P. Morgan

Mossad Commentary

Neil Stone

Suzanne Maloney

Arash Azizi

Al Jazeera Centre for Studies

Victor Davis Hanson

Witold Repetowicz

Mehdi Parpanchi

Mohammed M. Hafez

Stimson Center

"Current and former U.S. officials say they see little sign, at least so far, of a mass popular uprising in Iran or of significant fissures within the government or security forces that will result in a new regime."

"There is an 11% chance that the Iranian government will lose power before 2027."

"There is an 8.9% chance that the Iranian regime will collapse and Reza Pahlavi will become head of state before January 1, 2027."

"There is an 19% chance that the Iranian regime will fall before 2027."

"Regime change is possible but unlikely."

"In any case, the Islamic Republic faces a significant challenge, and its long-term survival is not assured."

"Regime collapse or irreversible degradation is more likely than regime survival (65% likelihood)."

“The regime cannot continue that long.”

"If Trump sees it through, and I think he will, I think they're [going to] fall pretty soon, in two, three, four weeks."

"I think the regime will collapse before Iranian New Year (Nowruz), which is March 20th."

Will the Islamic Republic of Iran Experience Regime Collapse by 2027?

U.S. President Donald Trump said Wednesday he was "not satisfied" with Iran's proposals to end the war, warning he was prepared to "finish the job" if negotiations failed. Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated there had been "some progress and some interest," adding: "We'll see over the next few hours and days whether progress could be made."

U.S. President Donald Trump said Wednesday he was "not satisfied" with Iran's proposals to end the war, warning he was prepared to "finish the job" if negotiations failed. Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated there had been "some progress and some interest," adding: "We'll see over the next few hours and days whether progress could be made."

The White House called an Iranian state TV report on a draft memorandum of understanding a "complete fabrication." The reported draft had included terms such as lifting the U.S. naval blockade and withdrawing American forces from Iran's vicinity.

The White House called an Iranian state TV report on a draft memorandum of understanding a "complete fabrication." The reported draft had included terms such as lifting the U.S. naval blockade and withdrawing American forces from Iran's vicinity.

Iran accused the U.S. of a "gross violation" of the ceasefire after <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.verity.news/story/2026/us-strikes-iran-as-nuclear-deal-talks-continue">American forces struck missile sites and vessels allegedly laying mines </a>near the Strait of Hormuz on Monday. Iran's Revolutionary Guard said a return to full-scale war was unlikely but warned its forces stood ready to respond.

Iran accused the U.S. of a "gross violation" of the ceasefire after American forces struck missile sites and vessels allegedly laying mines near the Strait of Hormuz on Monday. Iran's Revolutionary Guard said a return to full-scale war was unlikely but warned its forces stood ready to respond.

Iran is seeking the release of up to $24 billion in frozen assets as part of an initial agreement, with half expected to be unlocked after signing. U.S. officials have said sanctions relief and asset releases would be contingent on Iranian compliance with other elements of any deal.

Iran is seeking the release of up to $24 billion in frozen assets as part of an initial agreement, with half expected to be unlocked after signing. U.S. officials have said sanctions relief and asset releases would be contingent on Iranian compliance with other elements of any deal.

The Pentagon estimated the cost of its operations against Iran at approximately $29 billion as of mid-May, though officials acknowledged the full figure could be closer to $40–50 billion. The U.S. Navy's top officer told Congress that the conflict had forced cuts to training, flight hours and recruit funding.

The Pentagon estimated the cost of its operations against Iran at approximately $29 billion as of mid-May, though officials acknowledged the full figure could be closer to $40–50 billion. The U.S. Navy's top officer told Congress that the conflict had forced cuts to training, flight hours and recruit funding.

Meanwhile, in Lebanon, Israeli forces killed at least 31 people on Tuesday and issued dozens of displacement orders across the south and east of the country. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel was "deepening its operations" and seizing territory beyond the demarcation line established under a U.S.-brokered ceasefire.

Meanwhile, in Lebanon, Israeli forces killed at least 31 people on Tuesday and issued dozens of displacement orders across the south and east of the country. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel was "deepening its operations" and seizing territory beyond the demarcation line established under a U.S.-brokered ceasefire.

The Washington Post #

Al Jazeera #6080

Reuters #

CNBC #

Ynet #

BBC News #

AL #

TRT World #

France 24 #

CNN #

Iranwire #

ABC News #

Kurdistan24 #

FOX News #

Metaculus #

U.S. President Donald Trump said Wednesday he was "not satisfied" with Iran's proposals to end the war, warning he was prepared to "finish the job" if negotiations failed. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said "significant progress" had been made and results were expected within hours or days.

U.S. President Donald Trump said Wednesday he was "not satisfied" with Iran's proposals to end the war, warning he was prepared to "finish the job" if negotiations failed. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said "significant progress" had been made and results were expected within hours or days.

Iran accused the U.S. of a "gross violation" of the ceasefire after American forces struck missile sites and vessels allegedly laying mines near the Strait of Hormuz on Monday. Iran's Revolutionary Guard said a return to full-scale war was unlikely but warned its forces stood ready to respond.

Trump's Iran strategy has backfired badly — the U.S. is now stuck in a costly deadlock while Iran tightens its grip on the Strait of Hormuz. The Pentagon is canceling training, slashing recruits' bonuses and burning through billions it never budgeted for, with real costs closer to $40-50 billion. Meanwhile, ceasefires on multiple fronts are collapsing and the U.S. is in a worse position than before the war started.

Trump's Iran strategy has backfired badly — the U.S. is now stuck in a costly deadlock while Iran tightens its grip on the Strait of Hormuz. The Pentagon is canceling training, slashing recruits' bonuses and burning through billions it never budgeted for, with real costs closer to $40-50 billion. Meanwhile, ceasefires on multiple fronts are collapsing and the U.S. is in a worse position than before the war started.

Iran is negotiating from a position of total weakness — its navy is gone, its air force is gone and its economy is in freefall. Trump is demanding a perfect deal that reopens the Strait of Hormuz, blocks Iran from ever getting a nuclear weapon and keeps frozen assets under U.S. control. Diplomacy is the first choice, but finishing the job militarily remains firmly on the table if Iran can't meet the terms.

Iran is negotiating from a position of total weakness — its navy is gone, its air force is gone and its economy is in freefall. Trump is demanding a perfect deal that reopens the Strait of Hormuz, blocks Iran from ever getting a nuclear weapon and keeps frozen assets under U.S. control. Diplomacy is the first choice, but finishing the job militarily remains firmly on the table if Iran can't meet the terms.

There is a 6% chance that Iran will possess a nuclear weapon before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

There is a 6% chance that Iran will possess a nuclear weapon before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Trump Warns Iran: Deal Now, or We'll 'Finish the Job'

Trump Warns Iran: Deal Now, or FaceWe'll 'Finish the Job'

The Spin

Metaculus Prediction

The Controversies

Harris

Fuller

Post

Kalshi

Byman

Center

Morgan

Hanson

Stone

Go Deeper

Sign Up for Our Free Newsletters
Sign Up for Our Free Newsletters

Trump Warns Iran: Deal Now, or We'll 'Finish the Job'

Trump Warns Iran: Deal Now, or FaceWe'll 'Finish the Job'

The Spin

Metaculus Prediction

The Controversies

Harris

Fuller

Post

Kalshi

Byman

Center

Morgan

Hanson

Stone

Go Deeper

Sign Up for Our Free NewslettersSign Up for Our Free Newsletters

Sign Up for Our Free Newsletters
Sign Up for Our Free Newsletters