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Iran's supreme leader is holed up in undisclosed location, U.S. intelligence says

Quincy Institute for Responsible Statescraft

Irans Next Transformation: How War Could Shift Power from Clerics to the Military

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Sheikh Naim Qassem: Iran under Ayatollah Seyed Mojtaba Khamenei's leadership humiliated United States, Israel

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Iran ready to reassure world it is not pursuing nukes: Pezeshkian

Pezeshkian: Iran ready to assure world it won't seek nuclear weapons

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Pezeshkian: Iran ready to assure world it is not seeking nuclear weapons

The Economic Times

Why the US-Iran deal is stuck: Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei reportedly hiding in undisclosed location inaccessible even to top Iranian officials

The Times of Israel

Irans Supreme Leader Hiding In Secret Location Communicates Via Network Of Messengers Cbs

Tehran Times

No decision made without Leader's approval: President Pezeshkian

Roya News

Iran to continue managing Strait of Hormuz after deal with US: Iranian media

Turkiye Today

Iran's supreme leader is hidden with only couriers as access: Report

I24News

Iran's Supreme Leader Holed Up In Undisclosed Location, Slowing Deal Talks

New York Post

Iran’s supreme leader has agreed ‘in principle’ to give up uranium as part of peace deal, US official says

The Washington Examiner

Iran negotiations slowed by supreme leaders isolation: US officials

BBC News

Deal with US not imminent, Iran says

Benjamin Netanyahu

Ali Khamenei

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Kelsey Davenport

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Seyed Hossein Mousavian

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Mehdi Hasan

Tamir Hayman

Kamal Kharazi

Barry R McCaffrey

Iran Watch

Hui Zhang

War Monitor

S.L. Kanthan

The New York Times

Metaculus

"No, we're not thinking about nuclear weapons."

"We have no intention of obtaining these weapons at all."

"Iran doesn't have nukes, isn't building nukes, and hasn't made the decision to build nukes."

"Iran doesn't have a bomb, and doesn't appear to be trying to make a bomb."

"They are definitely going for a nuclear weapon there is no question."

"They can have [a nuclear weapon], you know, in a matter of months, I would say."

Iran could produce a nuclear weapon "within a few months, less than a year."

Will Iran Possess a Nuclear Weapon?

Donald Trump

Marco Rubio

JD Vance

Esmaeil Baghaei

John Ratcliffe

Nicholas L. Miller

Spencer Faragasso

Darya Dolzikova

Andrea Stricker

Sean Parnell

David Albright

Israel Atomic Energy Commission

"If it [the stockpile of enriched uranium] is intact and Iran is able to keep it that way, they could potentially use it in a new covert enrichment facility to produce material for several nuclear weapons in a matter of months."

"I can say to the American people with great confidence that they [Iranians] are much further away from a nuclear program today than they were 24 hours ago."

"Our nuclear installations have been badly damaged, that's for sure."

"Israel's and U.S. attacks have effectively destroyed Iran's centrifuge enrichment program."

"The American strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities, combined with Israeli strikes on other elements of Iran's military nuclear program, has set back Iran's ability to develop nuclear weapons by many years."

"Iran's key nuclear enrichment facilities have been completely and totally obliterated."

Have US Strikes Set Back Iran's Nuclear Program?

Alex Vatanka

Mona Yacoubian

Daniel Byman

Kalshi

J.P. Morgan

The Washington Post

Mossad Commentary

Neil Stone

Suzanne Maloney

Arash Azizi

Al Jazeera Centre for Studies

Victor Davis Hanson

Witold Repetowicz

Mehdi Parpanchi

Mohammed M. Hafez

Stimson Center

"Current and former U.S. officials say they see little sign, at least so far, of a mass popular uprising in Iran or of significant fissures within the government or security forces that will result in a new regime."

"There is an 11% chance that the Iranian government will lose power before 2027."

"There is an 8.9% chance that the Iranian regime will collapse and Reza Pahlavi will become head of state before January 1, 2027."

"There is an 19% chance that the Iranian regime will fall before 2027."

"Regime change is possible but unlikely."

"In any case, the Islamic Republic faces a significant challenge, and its long-term survival is not assured."

"Regime collapse or irreversible degradation is more likely than regime survival (65% likelihood)."

“The regime cannot continue that long.”

"If Trump sees it through, and I think he will, I think they're [going to] fall pretty soon, in two, three, four weeks."

"I think the regime will collapse before Iranian New Year (Nowruz), which is March 20th."

Will the Islamic Republic of Iran Experience Regime Collapse by 2027?

U.S. intelligence indicates Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei is operating from an undisclosed location, reachable only through a courier network, with even senior Iranian officials unaware of his whereabouts or able to contact him directly.

The Jerusalem Post

U.S. intelligence indicates Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei is operating from an undisclosed location, reachable only through a courier network, with even senior Iranian officials unaware of his whereabouts or able to contact him directly.

The constrained lines of communication are said to be slowing <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.verity.news/story/2026/rubio-says-some-progress-made-toward-iran-deal">U.S.-Iran negotiations</a>, with a senior Trump administration official saying Khamenei had agreed to the "broad template" of a draft deal, but that final approval could still "take days" to filter through Iran’s system.

CGTN Africa

The constrained lines of communication are said to be slowing U.S.-Iran negotiations, with a senior Trump administration official saying Khamenei had agreed to the "broad template" of a draft deal, but that final approval could still "take days" to filter through Iran’s system.

The proposed deal would reportedly reopen the Strait of Hormuz and require Iran to dispose of its highly enriched uranium, with sanctions relief tied to progress on offloading the nuclear material. Iranian media said "management of the strait" would remain exclusively under Iranian authority.

The proposed deal would reportedly reopen the Strait of Hormuz and require Iran to dispose of its highly enriched uranium, with sanctions relief tied to progress on offloading the nuclear material. Iranian media said "management of the strait" would remain exclusively under Iranian authority.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said Tehran is prepared to assure the international community it is not pursuing nuclear weapons, while stressing that Iranian negotiators would not compromise on the country's "honour and dignity."

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said Tehran is prepared to assure the international community it is not pursuing nuclear weapons, while stressing that Iranian negotiators would not compromise on the country's "honour and dignity."

Mojtaba Khamenei is said to have been injured in U.S. and Israeli strikes during <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.verity.news/story/2026/us-and-israel-launch-attacks-on-iran-tehran-responds">Operation Epic Fury on Feb. 28</a> and has not been seen publicly since being appointed supreme leader following the <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.verity.news/story/2026/global-leaders-condemn-killing-of-irans-ayatollah-khamenei">killing of his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei</a>, who ruled Iran from 1989.

Khamenei Media

Mojtaba Khamenei is said to have been injured in U.S. and Israeli strikes during Operation Epic Fury on Feb. 28 and has not been seen publicly since being appointed supreme leader following the killing of his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who ruled Iran from 1989.

Most senior Iranian officials are reportedly spending weeks inside fortified bunkers and avoiding direct communication with one another. Analysts have noted the war may be accelerating a shift in Iran's internal power balance toward its military-security establishment.

Most senior Iranian officials are reportedly spending weeks inside fortified bunkers and avoiding direct communication with one another. Analysts have noted the war may be accelerating a shift in Iran's internal power balance toward its military-security establishment.

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Iran’s leadership is presenting a united front, with major diplomatic decisions moving through formal channels under the Supreme Leader’s authority and insisting Tehran is not pursuing nuclear weapons. Israel’s aggressive military posture remains the true source of regional instability, while Iran frames its strategy as defensive deterrence. Any agreement must preserve Iranian dignity, sovereignty and strategic independence — red lines the negotiating team is expected to defend.

Iran’s leadership is presenting a united front, with major diplomatic decisions moving through formal channels under the Supreme Leader’s authority and insisting Tehran is not pursuing nuclear weapons. Israel’s aggressive military posture remains the true source of regional instability, while Iran frames its strategy as defensive deterrence. Any agreement must preserve Iranian dignity, sovereignty and strategic independence — red lines the negotiating team is expected to defend.

Iran’s supreme leader is holed up in an undisclosed location, reachable only through a maze of intermediaries — helping explain why nuclear talks keep stalling. If senior Iranian officials cannot contact Khamenei directly, U.S. proposals risk sitting in limbo for days before delayed responses emerge. This is a leadership operating from concealment, raising serious questions about how effectively the system can make timely strategic and diplomatic decisions in a moment of high tension.

Iran’s supreme leader is holed up in an undisclosed location, reachable only through a maze of intermediaries — helping explain why nuclear talks keep stalling. If senior Iranian officials cannot contact Khamenei directly, U.S. proposals risk sitting in limbo for days before delayed responses emerge. This is a leadership operating from concealment, raising serious questions about how effectively the system can make timely strategic and diplomatic decisions in a moment of high tension.

There is a 6% chance that Iran will possess a nuclear weapon before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

There is a 6% chance that Iran will possess a nuclear weapon before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Metaculus #

Iran Obtains Nuclear Weapon by 2030

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Iran's Hidden Leader Stalls US Nuclear Talks

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Iran’s Supreme Leader Said to Be at Secret Site, Slowing Nuclear Talks

Iran’s Supreme Leader Said to Be at Secret Site, Slowing Nuclear Talks

Iran'’s HiddenSupreme Leader StallsSaid USto Be at Secret Site, Slowing Nuclear Talks

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Iran’s Supreme Leader Said to Be at Secret Site, Slowing Nuclear Talks

Iran'’s HiddenSupreme Leader StallsSaid USto Be at Secret Site, Slowing Nuclear Talks

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